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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Nacional

T T T T S

0–4

Full-time

Benfica

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

53% Possession 47%

5 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 14. · Benfica 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Maritimo	4	3	0	1	+1	9
4	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Feirense	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Porto	3	2	0	1	+5	6
8	Guimaraes	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Santa Clara	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Chaves	4	1	0	3	-5	3
16	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-2	2
17	Portimonense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Aves	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Rio Ave	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Feirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Porto	2	1	0	1	+4	3
9	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Chaves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Aves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
2	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Nacional	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Aves	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.