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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Nacional

U T T U U

1–4

Full-time

Benfica

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,8

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

1,1

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

38%

63%

Both score Ø 35%

50%

19%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,6

Conceded

1,2

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 10

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	14	2	1	+26	44
2	Porto	17	12	4	1	+26	40
3	Benfica	16	12	1	3	+31	37
4	Sp Braga	17	8	5	4	+14	29
5	Pacos Ferreira	16	7	4	5	+6	25
6	Rio Ave	17	7	4	6	+2	25
7	Arouca	17	5	9	3	+3	24
8	Guimaraes	17	6	5	6	-4	23
9	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	7	4	-1	22
10	Maritimo	17	6	3	8	-9	21
11	Estoril	17	5	5	7	-5	20
12	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-16	18
13	Nacional	16	4	5	7	-3	17
14	Moreirense	17	4	5	8	-8	17
15	U. Madeira	17	4	5	8	-12	17
16	Academica	17	4	4	9	-15	16
17	Boavista	17	2	4	11	-18	10
18	Tondela	17	2	2	13	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+24	24
2	Porto	9	7	2	0	+15	23
3	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+12	22
4	Rio Ave	9	6	0	3	+4	18
5	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+14	17
6	Estoril	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Belenenses	8	4	3	1	+2	15
8	U. Madeira	9	4	3	2	+0	15
9	Pacos Ferreira	8	4	2	2	+7	14
10	Maritimo	8	4	2	2	+6	14
11	Arouca	8	4	2	2	+3	14
12	Academica	9	4	2	3	-3	14
13	Nacional	7	3	3	1	+4	12
14	Guimaraes	9	2	3	4	-1	9
15	Moreirense	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Vitoria Setubal	9	1	6	2	-7	9
17	Boavista	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Tondela	9	1	1	7	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+14	22
2	Porto	8	5	2	1	+11	17
3	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	-3	14
4	Benfica	7	4	1	2	+7	13
5	Vitoria Setubal	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	Sp Braga	9	3	3	3	+0	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Arouca	9	1	7	1	+0	10
9	Moreirense	9	2	2	5	-7	8
10	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-2	7
11	Maritimo	9	2	1	6	-15	7
12	Nacional	9	1	2	6	-7	5
13	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-8	5
14	Estoril	9	1	2	6	-10	5
15	Tondela	8	1	1	6	-6	4
16	Belenenses	9	0	3	6	-18	3
17	U. Madeira	8	0	2	6	-12	2
18	Academica	8	0	2	6	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.