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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Vitoria Setubal

S U T U S

2–4

Full-time

Benfica

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/11 matches

Win Ø 53%

33%

73%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

58%

64%

Both score Ø 30%

50%

Average goals

3,1

Scored

1,8

2,5

Conceded

1,3

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

41% Possession 59%

15 Shots 23

5 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 9

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 7. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+16	32
2	Porto	12	9	3	0	+20	30
3	Benfica	11	8	0	3	+20	24
4	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+11	21
5	Rio Ave	13	6	3	4	+4	21
6	Pacos Ferreira	13	6	2	5	+4	20
7	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	6	2	+5	18
8	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-4	17
9	Arouca	13	3	7	3	-1	16
10	Guimaraes	13	4	4	5	-5	16
11	Estoril	13	4	4	5	-5	16
12	Nacional	12	4	3	5	+0	15
13	Belenenses	12	3	4	5	-14	13
14	Moreirense	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
16	U. Madeira	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	Academica	12	1	4	7	-14	7
18	Tondela	12	1	2	9	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+16	18
3	Rio Ave	7	5	0	2	+4	15
4	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
5	Pacos Ferreira	7	4	1	2	+7	13
6	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
7	Estoril	6	3	3	0	+4	12
8	Nacional	5	3	2	0	+5	11
9	Belenenses	6	3	2	1	+1	11
10	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+2	10
11	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	5	0	+1	8
12	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	+0	8
13	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	U. Madeira	6	2	2	2	-2	8
15	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Academica	6	1	2	3	-7	5
18	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Porto	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	1	2	+4	10
4	Arouca	7	1	5	1	+0	8
5	Sp Braga	6	2	2	2	+0	8
6	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-5	8
7	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-6	7
9	Benfica	4	2	0	2	+4	6
10	Rio Ave	6	1	3	2	+0	6
11	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-4	5
12	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-6	5
13	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-5	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-9	4
15	Academica	6	0	2	4	-7	2
16	U. Madeira	6	0	2	4	-9	2
17	Belenenses	6	0	2	4	-15	2
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.