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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Vitoria Setubal

U S S U T

2–2

Full-time

U. Madeira

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal U. Madeira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

0,8

Scored

1,0

0,2

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/8 matches

Win Ø 22%

30%

13%

Points per game

1,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

3,0

1,1

Scored

1,6

0,4

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2 Shots 2

2 Shots on target 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 6. · U. Madeira 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+14	26
2	Porto	9	6	3	0	+14	21
3	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+13	20
4	Benfica	9	6	0	3	+15	18
5	Rio Ave	10	5	3	2	+5	18
6	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	5	2	+2	14
7	Nacional	11	4	2	5	+0	14
8	Estoril	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	2	4	-3	14
10	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	-4	14
11	Belenenses	10	3	4	3	-10	13
12	Arouca	10	2	6	2	+0	12
13	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-7	10
14	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
15	Moreirense	10	1	4	5	-7	7
16	U. Madeira	8	1	3	4	-3	6
17	Academica	10	1	3	6	-11	6
18	Tondela	10	1	2	7	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+13	15
3	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+13	13
4	Rio Ave	5	4	0	1	+3	12
5	Nacional	5	3	2	0	+5	11
6	Belenenses	5	3	2	0	+4	11
7	Estoril	5	3	2	0	+4	11
8	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
9	Maritimo	5	3	1	1	+3	10
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-1	7
12	U. Madeira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-5	4
18	Academica	5	1	1	3	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Arouca	5	1	4	0	+2	7
3	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	1	2	+1	7
4	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	7
5	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
6	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	+2	6
7	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-6	5
10	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-7	4
11	Benfica	3	1	0	2	+2	3
12	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-5	3
13	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-7	3
14	Academica	5	0	2	3	-4	2
15	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
16	Belenenses	5	0	2	3	-14	2
17	U. Madeira	4	0	1	3	-3	1
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.