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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Andre Cardoso Antunes

Belenenses

U T S U T

1–0

Full-time

U. Madeira

T U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses U. Madeira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,2

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

2,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/6 matches

Win Ø 16%

14%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

57%

33%

Both score Ø 45%

57%

33%

Average goals

3,7

1,2

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

2,4

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 8

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 14. · U. Madeira 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Porto	8	5	3	0	+12	18
3	Rio Ave	8	4	3	1	+5	15
4	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+8	14
5	Pacos Ferreira	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	4	1	+4	13
7	Estoril	8	4	1	3	-2	13
8	Benfica	7	4	0	3	+9	12
9	Arouca	8	2	5	1	+1	11
10	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Nacional	8	2	2	4	-2	8
12	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Guimaraes	8	1	4	3	-7	7
14	Belenenses	7	1	4	2	-8	7
15	U. Madeira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
16	Tondela	8	1	2	5	-4	5
17	Academica	8	1	1	6	-11	4
18	Moreirense	8	0	3	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	1	0	+10	13
2	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+11	12
3	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Rio Ave	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Nacional	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Tondela	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Academica	4	1	0	3	-7	3
18	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
4	Rio Ave	4	1	3	0	+3	6
5	Arouca	4	1	3	0	+2	6
6	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-3	5
8	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-6	3
10	Guimaraes	4	0	2	2	-7	2
11	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-10	2
12	U. Madeira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-3	1
14	Academica	4	0	1	3	-4	1
15	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
16	Maritimo	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	Benfica	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.