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Primeira Liga
Referee: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira
Nacional
T S T
2–0
Full-time
Academica
T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Academica
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
1,7
3,0
Scored
0,7
0,3
Conceded
1,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-2,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
1,7
3,0
Scored
0,7
0,3
Conceded
1,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-2,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2 Shots 0
2 Shots on target 0
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nacional 13. · Academica 18. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 4 3 1 0 +7 10
2 Benfica 4 3 0 1 +10 9
3 Sp Lisbon 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Arouca 4 2 1 1 +1 7
5 Sp Braga 4 2 0 2 +3 6
6 Estoril 4 2 0 2 -3 6
7 Vitoria Setubal 3 1 2 0 +4 5
8 Rio Ave 3 1 2 0 +1 5
9 Pacos Ferreira 3 1 2 0 +1 5
10 U. Madeira 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Boavista 3 1 1 1 -3 4
12 Tondela 3 1 0 2 -1 3
13 Nacional 3 1 0 2 -1 3
14 Belenenses 4 0 3 1 -6 3
15 Maritimo 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Guimaraes 3 0 2 1 -3 2
17 Moreirense 3 0 0 3 -5 0
18 Academica 3 0 0 3 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nacional Academica
1–0 Tiquinho ⚽
18′
Half-time 1–0
Rui Silva 🔁
↦ Gottardi
46′
Salvador Agra 🟨
52′
Willyan 🔁
↦ Nenê Bonilha
56′
2–0 Salvador Agra ⚽
64′
68′
🔁 C. Oualembo
↦ Aderlan
68′
🔁 Hugo Seco
↦ Ivanildo
68′
🔁 Gonçalo Paciência
↦ Rabiola
B. Fofana 🔁
↦ Washington Santana
80′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Nacional

1 Gottardi
3 Zainadine Junior
5 Sequeira
33 Rui Correia
6 Ali Ghazal
2 João Aurélio
89 Washington Santana
8 Nenê Bonilha
30 Luís Aurélio
18 Tiquinho
7 Salvador Agra
Bench (7)
12 Rui Silva
28 Willyan
17 B. Fofana
68 Edgar Abreu
9 Gustavo
77 João Camacho
55 Mauro Cerqueira

Academica

88 Pedro Trigueira
3 Emidio Rafael
13 João Real
2 Aderlan
5 Ricardo Nascimento
20 Rui Pedro
8 Selim Bouadla
4 N. Obiora
21 Leandro Silva
10 Ivanildo
9 Rabiola
Bench (7)
22 C. Oualembo
77 Hugo Seco
19 Gonçalo Paciência
14 Iago Santos
48 Artur Taborda
30 Rafael Lopes
32 Lee

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira · 39 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.