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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Rio Ave

U S U

1–2

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 10. · Sp Lisbon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+10	9
3	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Arouca	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	+3	6
6	Nacional	4	2	0	2	+1	6
7	Estoril	4	2	0	2	-3	6
8	Maritimo	4	1	2	1	+2	5
9	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	U. Madeira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	-2	5
14	Boavista	3	1	1	1	-3	4
15	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Belenenses	4	0	3	1	-6	3
17	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Academica	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	U. Madeira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Academica	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Porto	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	2
6	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
8	U. Madeira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
9	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
10	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-4	1
11	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-6	1
12	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Sp Braga	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Academica	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.