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Serie A
Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Inter
S S
1–0
Full-time
Milan
T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
0,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,5
This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
0,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%
16 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 7
4 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Inter 6. · Milan 12. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Chievo 3 2 1 0 +6 7
2 Torino 3 2 1 0 +3 7
3 Roma 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Sassuolo 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Palermo 3 2 1 0 +2 7
6 Inter 2 2 0 0 +2 6
7 Fiorentina 3 2 0 1 +1 6
8 Lazio 3 2 0 1 -1 6
9 Sampdoria 2 1 1 0 +3 4
10 Atalanta 3 1 1 1 +1 4
11 Genoa 3 1 0 2 +0 3
12 Milan 2 1 0 1 -1 3
13 Udinese 3 1 0 2 -2 3
14 Napoli 3 0 2 1 -1 2
15 Verona 3 0 2 1 -2 2
16 Juventus 3 0 1 2 -2 1
17 Empoli 3 0 1 2 -3 1
18 Carpi 3 0 1 2 -4 1
19 Bologna 2 0 0 2 -2 0
20 Frosinone 3 0 0 3 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Inter Milan
22′
🟨 Ignazio Abate
Juan Jesus 🟨
37′
42′
🟨 Keisuke Honda
Half-time 1–0
1–0 F. Guarín ⚽
D. Santon
58′
62′
🔁 M. Balotelli
↦ C. Bacca
Felipe Melo 🟨
63′
66′
🟨 Juraj Kucka
Alex Telles 🔁
↦ Juan Jesus
68′
R. Palacio 🔁
↦ S. Jovetić
72′
72′
🔁 A. Poli
↦ J. Kucka
81′
🔁 A. Cerci
↦ K. Honda
A. Ranocchia 🔁
↦ I. Perišić
85′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Inter

1 S. Handanovič G
21 D. Santon D
24 J. Murillo D
5 Juan Jesus D
83 Felipe Melo M
44 I. Perišić M
17 G. Medel M
13 F. Guarín M
7 G. Kondogbia M
10 S. Jovetić F
9 M. Icardi F
Bench (12)
12 Alex Telles
8 R. Palacio
23 A. Ranocchia
11 J. Biabiany
14 Martín Montoya
22 A. Ljajić
27 A. Gnoukouri
30 J. Carrizo
33 D. D'Ambrosio
55 Y. Nagatomo
77 M. Brozović
97 R. Manaj

Milan

1 Diego López G
17 C. Zapata D
20 I. Abate D
2 M. De Sciglio D
13 A. Romagnoli D
18 R. Montolivo M
28 G. Bonaventura M
27 J. Kucka M
10 K. Honda M
9 Luiz Adriano F
70 C. Bacca F
Bench (12)
45 M. Balotelli
16 A. Poli
11 A. Cerci
5 P. Mexès
8 Suso
15 R. Ely
23 A. Nocerino
32 C. Abbiati
33 Alex
34 N. de Jong
96 D. Calabria
99 G. Donnarumma

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Gianluca Rocchi · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,40 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.