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Primeira Liga
Referee: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves
Academica
T T
1–3
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Academica Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
0,0
1,5
Conceded
2,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-2,5
+0,5
This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
0,0
1,5
Conceded
2,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-2,5
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

27% Possession 73%
7 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 5
6 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
6 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Academica 18. · Sp Lisbon 8. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 3 2 1 0 +5 7
2 Arouca 3 2 1 0 +3 7
3 Benfica 3 2 0 1 +4 6
4 Sp Braga 3 2 0 1 +4 6
5 Vitoria Setubal 3 1 2 0 +4 5
6 Rio Ave 3 1 2 0 +1 5
7 Pacos Ferreira 3 1 2 0 +1 5
8 Sp Lisbon 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Boavista 3 1 1 1 -3 4
10 U. Madeira 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Tondela 3 1 0 2 -1 3
12 Nacional 3 1 0 2 -1 3
13 Estoril 3 1 0 2 -4 3
14 Belenenses 2 0 2 0 +0 2
15 Maritimo 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Guimaraes 2 0 1 1 -3 1
17 Moreirense 3 0 0 3 -5 0
18 Academica 2 0 0 2 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Academica Sp Lisbon
6′
⚽ Carlos Mané 0–1
Nii Plange 🟨
20′
24′
⚽ I. Slimani 0–2
Ivanildo 🟨
29′
32′
🟨 Adrien Silva
1–2 Rabiola ⚽
33′
Half-time 1–2
Ricardo Nascimento 🟨
54′
Hugo Seco 🔁
↦ N. Obiora
60′
Gonçalo Paciência 🔁
↦ Rabiola
65′
65′
🔁 B. Ruiz
↦ T. Gutiérrez
Fernando Alexandre 🟨
68′
70′
🔁 A. Aquilani
↦ A. Carrillo
Rafael Lopes 🔁
↦ Selim Bouadla
78′
Fernando Alexandre 🟨
82′
Fernando Alexandre 🟥
82′
83′
⚽ A. Aquilani 1–3
Leandro Silva 🟨
85′
86′
🟨 Jefferson
87′
🔁 J. Silva
↦ Jefferson
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Academica

32 Lee
3 Emidio Rafael
13 João Real D
5 Ricardo Nascimento
43 N. Plange
8 Selim Bouadla
65 Fernando Alexandre M
4 N. Obiora M
21 Leandro Silva M
10 Ivanildo M
9 Rabiola F
Bench (7)
77 Hugo Seco
19 Gonçalo Paciência
30 Rafael Lopes
1 João Gomes
20 Rui Pedro
22 C. Oualembo
23 William Gustavo

Sp Lisbon

1 Rui Patrício G
4 Jefferson D
44 Naldo D
15 Paulo Oliveira D
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
23 Adrien Silva M
17 João Mário M
19 T. Gutiérrez F
9 I. Slimani F
18 A. Carrillo M
36 Carlos Mané M
Bench (7)
20 B. Ruiz
6 A. Aquilani
3 J. Silva
10 F. Montero
22 Marcelo Boeck
55 Tobias Figueiredo
60 Gelson Martins

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves · 41 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,39 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.