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Bundesliga
Referee: Jochen Drees
Hoffenheim
T T U
1–3
Full-time
Werder Bremen
T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Werder Bremen
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,0
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,0
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%
10 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 3
3 Offside 5
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 14. · Werder Bremen 13. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 +12 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 4 0 0 +10 12
3 Wolfsburg 4 2 2 0 +4 8
4 Ein Frankfurt 4 2 1 1 +6 7
5 Hertha 4 2 1 1 +0 7
6 FC Koln 4 2 1 1 -1 7
7 FC Ingolstadt 04 4 2 1 1 -2 7
8 Mainz 3 2 0 1 +3 6
9 Darmstadt 4 1 3 0 +1 6
10 Hamburg 4 2 0 2 -2 6
11 Leverkusen 4 2 0 2 -2 6
12 Schalke 04 3 1 1 1 +0 4
13 Werder Bremen 3 1 1 1 -2 4
14 Hoffenheim 3 0 1 2 -2 1
15 Augsburg 4 0 1 3 -3 1
16 Hannover 4 0 1 3 -6 1
17 Stuttgart 4 0 0 4 -7 0
18 M'gladbach 4 0 0 4 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim Werder Bremen
18′
🟨 Zlatko Junuzović
45′
⚽ Z. Junuzović 0–1
A. Ujah
Half-time 0–1
E. Vargas 🔁
↦ K. Kuranyi
46′
J. Schmid 🔁
↦ S. Zuber
46′
1–1 E. Vargas ⚽
M. Uth
49′
Kevin Volland 🟨
53′
Eugen Polański 🟨
61′
64′
🔁 F. Bartels
↦ A. Jóhannsson
66′
🟨 Assani Lukimya
69′
🟨 Clemens Fritz
82′
🔁 C. Pizarro
↦ U. Garcia
89′
🔁 Gálvez
↦ F. Kroos
90′
🟨 Anthony Ujah
92′
⚽ A. Ujah 1–2
C. Pizarro
93′
⚽ Z. Junuzović 1–3
F. Bartels
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

1 O. Baumann G
20 Jin-Su Kim D
5 F. Schär D
3 P. Kaderábek M
25 N. Süle D
8 E. Polanski M
16 P. Schwegler M
17 S. Zuber M
22 K. Kuranyi M
31 K. Volland F
19 M. Uth F
Bench (7)
9 E. Vargas
10 J. Schmid
4 E. Bičakčić
6 S. Rudy
12 T. Strobl
13 J. Grahl
15 J. Toljan

Werder Bremen

42 F. Wiedwald G
5 A. Lukimya D
23 T. Gebre Selassie D
2 S. García D
7 J. Vestergaard D
20 U. Garcia D
8 C. Fritz M
16 Z. Junuzović M
18 F. Kroos M
9 A. Jóhannsson F
21 A. Ujah F
Bench (7)
22 F. Bartels
14 C. Pizarro
4 Gálvez
11 L. Öztunali
30 M. Zetterer
37 J. Sternberg
39 L. Fröde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jochen Drees · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.