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Ligue 1

Referee: Nicolas Rainville

Marseille

T T S T

4–1

Full-time

Bastia

S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

25%

75%

Both score Ø 38%

75%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

25%

75%

Both score Ø 38%

75%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 0

5 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 17. · Bastia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Rennes	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Reims	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	St Etienne	5	3	1	1	+2	10
5	Caen	5	3	0	2	-1	9
6	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
7	Angers	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Monaco	5	2	2	1	-1	8
9	Bastia	4	2	1	1	+3	7
10	Nantes	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Bordeaux	5	1	3	1	+1	6
12	Lille	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Guingamp	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Lorient	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Marseille	4	1	0	3	+2	3
18	Troyes	5	0	3	2	-8	3
19	Montpellier	5	0	1	4	-5	1
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bastia	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Reims	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Nantes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Lorient	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	St Etienne	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+5	3
11	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Guingamp	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Nice	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Troyes	4	0	3	1	-2	3
15	Caen	2	1	0	1	-3	3
16	Angers	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Lyon	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Monaco	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Montpellier	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Caen	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Angers	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Rennes	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	St Etienne	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Reims	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Bordeaux	3	0	3	0	+0	3
10	Guingamp	3	1	0	2	-3	3
11	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Lille	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Bastia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Toulouse	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Troyes	1	0	0	1	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.