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Eredivisie
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
AZ Alkmaar
S S S U U
2–2
Full-time
Vitesse
U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Vitesse
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,0
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,3
This season — Eredivisie · 7/8 matches
Win Ø 47%
43%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
29%
50%
Both score Ø 53%
43%
63%
Average goals
2,4
2,5
Scored
1,6
1,5
Conceded
0,9
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%
19 Shots 13
8 Shots on target 7
5 Blocked shots 0
5 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 5
3 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 18
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 7. · Vitesse 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Feyenoord 8 8 0 0 +21 24
2 Ajax 8 6 1 1 +12 19
3 PSV Eindhoven 9 5 3 1 +11 18
4 Heerenveen 7 4 2 1 +8 14
5 Vitesse 8 4 1 3 +4 13
6 Twente 8 4 1 3 +2 13
7 AZ Alkmaar 7 3 3 1 +5 12
8 Sparta Rotterdam 9 3 3 3 +0 12
9 Den Haag 8 3 1 4 -4 10
10 Excelsior 8 3 1 4 -4 10
11 Nijmegen 8 2 3 3 -6 9
12 Utrecht 7 2 2 3 -1 8
13 Heracles 9 1 5 3 -3 8
14 Go Ahead Eagles 9 2 2 5 -7 8
15 Willem II 9 1 4 4 -8 7
16 Groningen 8 1 3 4 -5 6
17 Zwolle 8 1 2 5 -13 5
18 Roda 8 0 3 5 -12 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Vitesse
Rens Van Eijden 🟨
22′
23′
L. Baker 0–1
28′
🟨 Marvelous Nakamba
Half-time 0–1
Wout Weghorst 🟨
57′
58′
R. van Wolfswinkel 0–2
M. Tankovic 🔁
↦ D. dos Santos
60′
R. Mühren 🔁
↦ W. Weghorst
60′
72′
🔁 Zhang Yuning
↦ R. van Wolfswinkel
1–2 R. Mühren
78′
80′
🔁 M. van Bergen
↦ A. Tighadouini
82′
🟨 Kelvin Leerdam
F. Friday 🔁
↦ S. Wuytens
83′
87′
🔁 K. Ota
↦ A. Kruiswijk
2–2 R. Mühren
87′
90′
🟨 Mitchell Van Bergen
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 S. Rochet G
3 R. van Eijden D
2 M. Johansson D
5 R. Haps D
23 D. Luckassen D
30 S. Wuytens D
6 B. Rienstra M
18 I. Bel Hassani M
7 A. Jahanbakhsh F
9 W. Weghorst F
19 D. dos Santos F
Bench (9)
11 M. Tankovic
21 R. Mühren
27 F. Friday
16 G. Coutinho
22 T. Ouwejan
15 G. Til
34 C. Stengs
20 M. Seuntjens
8 J. van Overeem

Coach: J. van den Brom

Vitesse

4-3-3
1 E. Room G
6 A. Kruiswijk D
37 G. Kashia D
5 K. Leerdam D
19 M. Miazga D
25 N. Foor M
10 A. Tighadouini F
34 L. Baker M
18 M. Nakamba M
13 R. van Wolfswinkel F
7 M. Rashica F
Bench (9)
9 Zhang Yuning
16 M. van Bergen
8 K. Ota
29 J. Lelieveld
30 A. Koryan
14 A. Dauda
20 M. Osman
11 Nathan
24 J. Houwen

Coach: H. Fraser

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Serdar Gozubuyuk · 131 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.