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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Arsenal

S S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Swansea

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 43%

71%

14%

Points per game

2,3

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

2,3

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

48% Possession 52%

16 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

9 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 3. · Swansea 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	0	1	+11	18
2	Tottenham	7	5	2	0	+9	17
3	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+9	16
4	Liverpool	7	5	1	1	+8	16
5	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Everton	7	4	2	1	+6	14
7	Man United	7	4	1	2	+5	13
8	Crystal Palace	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+1	9
10	Southampton	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Watford	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Leicester	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Burnley	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Hull	7	2	1	4	-7	7
16	Middlesbrough	7	1	3	3	-3	6
17	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-6	4
18	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Stoke	7	0	3	4	-11	3
20	Sunderland	7	0	2	5	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Everton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Man United	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Burnley	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+7	6
9	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+0	6
11	Southampton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+2	4
13	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Watford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	West Ham	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Hull	4	1	0	3	-5	3
17	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Swansea	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+1	10
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+0	7
7	Everton	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Southampton	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Hull	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-5	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Leicester	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.