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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Hoffenheim

U U U S S

2–1

Full-time

Freiburg

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 5

3 Offside 7

18 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 7. · Freiburg 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+14	16
2	Hertha	7	4	2	1	+4	14
3	Dortmund	7	4	1	2	+10	13
4	FC Koln	6	3	3	0	+7	12
5	RB Leipzig	6	3	3	0	+6	12
6	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Hoffenheim	6	2	4	0	+2	10
8	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+2	10
9	M'gladbach	6	3	1	2	+0	10
10	Freiburg	6	3	0	3	-2	9
11	Mainz	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Augsburg	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Wolfsburg	6	1	3	2	-3	6
14	Darmstadt	6	1	2	3	-8	5
15	Werder Bremen	6	1	1	4	-10	4
16	Schalke 04	6	1	0	5	-4	3
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	6	0	1	5	-9	1
18	Hamburg	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+11	10
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	M'gladbach	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Hertha	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	FC Koln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
7	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+2	7
9	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+2	7
10	Hoffenheim	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Darmstadt	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Schalke 04	3	1	0	2	+0	3
13	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-4	2
16	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Hamburg	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Mainz	4	2	1	1	+2	7
2	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	RB Leipzig	3	1	2	0	+4	5
4	FC Koln	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Hoffenheim	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Hertha	4	1	2	1	-1	5
7	Wolfsburg	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Dortmund	3	1	0	2	+1	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	+0	3
11	Leverkusen	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	0	1	2	-4	1
13	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-6	1
14	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-9	1
15	Schalke 04	3	0	0	3	-4	0
16	Hamburg	3	0	0	3	-5	0
17	Freiburg	3	0	0	3	-6	0
18	Darmstadt	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.