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Ligue 1

Referee: Bartolomeu Varela Teles

Toulouse

S T U U S

0–1

Full-time

Paris SG

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,0

2,8

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 53%

20%

85%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

55%

60%

Both score Ø 53%

65%

40%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,1

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

25% Possession 75%

9 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 7

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 18. · Paris SG 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	17	3	0	+41	54
2	Angers	21	9	7	5	+7	34
3	Nice	21	9	6	6	+10	33
4	Monaco	20	8	9	3	+2	33
5	Caen	20	9	3	8	-3	30
6	Lyon	20	8	5	7	+3	29
7	St Etienne	20	9	2	9	-1	29
8	Rennes	20	6	10	4	+4	28
9	Lorient	20	6	9	5	+1	27
10	Nantes	20	7	6	7	-2	27
11	Marseille	20	6	8	6	+7	26
12	Bordeaux	20	6	8	6	-4	26
13	Lille	20	5	10	5	+2	25
14	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	20	6	7	7	-2	25
15	Montpellier	20	6	4	10	-4	22
16	Bastia	20	6	4	10	-6	22
17	Reims	20	5	6	9	-7	21
18	Toulouse	20	4	8	8	-10	20
19	Guingamp	20	5	5	10	-10	20
20	Troyes	20	0	8	12	-28	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+23	25
2	St Etienne	10	6	2	2	+7	20
3	Bastia	10	6	0	4	+5	18
4	Bordeaux	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Angers	11	4	6	1	+4	18
6	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+7	17
7	Lorient	10	4	4	2	+6	16
8	Nice	10	5	1	4	+5	16
9	Caen	10	5	1	4	-4	16
10	Lille	10	4	3	3	+4	15
11	Nantes	10	4	3	3	+0	15
12	Montpellier	11	5	0	6	-1	15
13	Monaco	10	3	5	2	-1	14
14	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	9	3	4	2	+2	13
15	Reims	11	3	4	4	+0	13
16	Marseille	11	2	6	3	+6	12
17	Guingamp	9	3	3	3	+1	12
18	Toulouse	9	2	5	2	+1	11
19	Rennes	10	2	5	3	-2	11
20	Troyes	11	0	6	5	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+18	29
2	Monaco	10	5	4	1	+3	19
3	Rennes	10	4	5	1	+6	17
4	Nice	11	4	5	2	+5	17
5	Angers	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Caen	10	4	2	4	+1	14
7	Marseille	9	4	2	3	+1	14
8	Nantes	10	3	3	4	-2	12
9	Lyon	10	3	3	4	-4	12
10	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	11	3	3	5	-4	12
11	Lorient	10	2	5	3	-5	11
12	Lille	10	1	7	2	-2	10
13	St Etienne	10	3	0	7	-8	9
14	Toulouse	11	2	3	6	-11	9
15	Reims	9	2	2	5	-7	8
16	Bordeaux	10	1	5	4	-8	8
17	Guingamp	11	2	2	7	-11	8
18	Montpellier	9	1	4	4	-3	7
19	Bastia	10	0	4	6	-11	4
20	Troyes	9	0	2	7	-20	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.