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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoit Millot

Toulouse

T S S T U

3–3

Full-time

Monaco

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Monaco

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

17%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,3

4,2

Scored

0,7

3,0

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 46%

27%

65%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

35%

69%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

2,1

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%

9 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 16. · Monaco 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	26	22	2	2	+62	68
2	Monaco	26	17	5	4	+38	56
3	Marseille	26	16	7	3	+27	55
4	Lyon	26	14	7	5	+24	49
5	Montpellier	27	9	12	6	+3	39
6	Nantes	26	11	6	9	+0	39
7	Rennes	26	10	5	11	-3	35
8	Bordeaux	26	10	5	11	-3	35
9	Nice	26	10	5	11	-6	35
10	Guingamp	26	9	7	10	-7	34
11	St Etienne	26	9	6	11	-13	33
12	Caen	26	9	5	12	-10	32
13	Dijon	26	9	5	12	-16	32
14	Strasbourg	27	8	7	12	-15	31
15	Troyes	26	8	4	14	-10	28
16	Toulouse	26	7	6	13	-11	27
17	Lille	26	7	6	13	-16	27
18	Amiens	26	7	5	14	-8	26
19	Angers	26	5	10	11	-12	25
20	Metz	26	5	3	18	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	13	0	0	+42	39
2	Monaco	14	11	2	1	+26	35
3	Marseille	13	9	3	1	+20	30
4	Dijon	13	8	2	3	+7	26
5	Nice	14	7	2	5	+2	23
6	Lyon	12	6	4	2	+8	22
7	Strasbourg	14	6	4	4	+2	22
8	Montpellier	14	5	6	3	+4	21
9	Troyes	14	6	3	5	+1	21
10	Caen	14	6	3	5	-1	21
11	Bordeaux	12	6	2	4	+2	20
12	Guingamp	13	5	5	3	+2	20
13	Nantes	12	6	2	4	+2	20
14	St Etienne	13	5	5	3	-1	20
15	Amiens	13	5	3	5	+2	18
16	Toulouse	12	5	3	4	+2	18
17	Lille	13	4	4	5	-4	16
18	Rennes	12	5	1	6	-4	16
19	Angers	13	3	4	6	-9	13
20	Metz	13	3	1	9	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	2	2	+20	29
2	Lyon	14	8	3	3	+16	27
3	Marseille	13	7	4	2	+7	25
4	Monaco	12	6	3	3	+12	21
5	Rennes	14	5	4	5	+1	19
6	Nantes	14	5	4	5	-2	19
7	Montpellier	13	4	6	3	-1	18
8	Bordeaux	14	4	3	7	-5	15
9	Guingamp	13	4	2	7	-9	14
10	St Etienne	13	4	1	8	-12	13
11	Angers	13	2	6	5	-3	12
12	Nice	12	3	3	6	-8	12
13	Caen	12	3	2	7	-9	11
14	Lille	13	3	2	8	-12	11
15	Toulouse	14	2	3	9	-13	9
16	Strasbourg	13	2	3	8	-17	9
17	Amiens	13	2	2	9	-10	8
18	Metz	13	2	2	9	-13	8
19	Troyes	12	2	1	9	-11	7
20	Dijon	13	1	3	9	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.