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Ligue 1
Referee: Brisard Jerome
Montpellier
U T S U U
2–1
Full-time
Toulouse
S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Toulouse
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,2
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 27%
29%
24%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 26%
14%
38%
Both score Ø 43%
38%
48%
Average goals
1,5
2,3
Scored
0,9
0,9
Conceded
0,7
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

63% Possession 37%
22 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 4
4 Offside 1
19 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Montpellier 8. · Toulouse 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 21 18 2 1 +52 56
2 Marseille 22 14 5 3 +23 47
3 Lyon 21 13 6 2 +28 45
4 Monaco 21 13 4 4 +27 43
5 Nantes 22 10 4 8 -2 34
6 Nice 21 9 4 8 -4 31
7 Guingamp 21 8 5 8 -3 29
8 Montpellier 21 6 10 5 +4 28
9 Rennes 21 8 4 9 -4 28
10 Caen 22 8 3 11 -10 27
11 Bordeaux 22 7 5 10 -7 26
12 Dijon 21 7 4 10 -13 25
13 Strasbourg 21 6 6 9 -11 24
14 St Etienne 21 6 5 10 -16 23
15 Angers 21 4 10 7 -6 22
16 Amiens 21 6 4 11 -6 22
17 Lille 21 6 4 11 -13 22
18 Troyes 21 6 3 12 -10 21
19 Toulouse 21 5 5 11 -11 20
20 Metz 21 4 3 14 -18 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Montpellier Toulouse
17′
🟨 Christopher Jullien
30′
G. Imbula 0–1
C. Jullien
41′
🟥 Max Gradel
1–1 S. Sambia
43′
45′
🟨 Issiaga Sylla
Half-time 1–1
Paul Lasne 🟨
53′
54′
🔁 A. Delort
↦ Y. Sanogo
I. Mbenza 🔁
↦ J. Ikoné
62′
S. Sessègnon 🔁
↦ P. Lasne
68′
72′
🟨 Andy Delort
N. Mukiele 🔁
↦ D. Congré
76′
80′
🟨 Alban Lafont
93′
🔁 C. Jean
↦ Somália
2–1 G. Sio
95′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Montpellier

3-4-2-1
40 B. Lecomte G
3 D. Congré D
4 Hilton D
5 Pedro Mendes D
24 J. Roussillon D
2 R. Aguilar M
7 P. Lasne M
13 E. Skhiri M
6 S. Sambia M
9 J. Ikoné M
14 G. Sio F
Bench (7)
18 I. Mbenza
28 S. Sessègnon
23 N. Mukiele
1 L. Pionnier
19 S. Camara
20 K. Dolly
29 C. Ninga

Coach: M. Der Zakarian

Toulouse

4-3-3
40 A. Lafont G
6 C. Jullien D
20 S. Yago D
12 Issiaga Sylla D
5 I. Diop D
19 Somália M
25 G. Imbula M
27 A. Blin M
17 I. Sangaré M
7 M. Gradel M
9 Y. Sanogo F
Bench (7)
10 A. Delort
8 C. Jean
1 M. Goicoechea
4 Y. Cahuzac
21 J. Durmaz
23 Y. Bodiger
26 Q. Boisgard

Coach: P. Dupraz

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Brisard Jerome · 32 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.