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Eredivisie

Referee: Reinold Wiedemeijer

Heerenveen

S S T U U

0–1

Full-time

Excelsior

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 34%

35%

33%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

65%

63%

Both score Ø 67%

70%

63%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

26 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

11 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 8. · Excelsior 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	24	20	2	2	+37	62
2	Ajax	24	18	3	3	+45	57
3	AZ Alkmaar	25	16	5	4	+24	53
4	Feyenoord	24	12	6	6	+22	42
5	Zwolle	24	11	6	7	+0	39
6	Utrecht	22	10	7	5	+2	37
7	Vitesse	21	9	6	6	+11	33
8	Heerenveen	23	8	8	7	-2	32
9	Den Haag	22	9	5	8	-2	32
10	VVV Venlo	24	7	10	7	-5	31
11	Excelsior	24	8	5	11	-6	29
12	Heracles	24	7	6	11	-17	27
13	Groningen	25	5	10	10	-5	25
14	NAC Breda	25	5	6	14	-16	21
15	Willem II	24	5	5	14	-15	20
16	Twente	24	4	5	15	-17	17
17	Roda	24	4	5	15	-27	17
18	Sparta Rotterdam	25	3	6	16	-29	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	1	0	+22	34
2	Ajax	12	10	0	2	+23	30
3	AZ Alkmaar	13	8	2	3	+10	26
4	Feyenoord	12	7	3	2	+12	24
5	Heracles	12	7	3	2	+6	24
6	Zwolle	12	7	2	3	+7	23
7	Utrecht	11	5	5	1	+2	20
8	Groningen	13	4	7	2	+5	19
9	Den Haag	12	5	3	4	+2	18
10	Heerenveen	11	4	3	4	-5	15
11	Vitesse	10	3	4	3	+3	13
12	VVV Venlo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
13	NAC Breda	12	4	1	7	-8	13
14	Willem II	12	3	3	6	-1	12
15	Twente	12	3	3	6	-6	12
16	Roda	12	3	3	6	-8	12
17	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	2	7	-12	11
18	Excelsior	12	2	4	6	-6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	9	1	2	+15	28
2	Ajax	12	8	3	1	+22	27
3	AZ Alkmaar	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	Vitesse	11	6	2	3	+8	20
5	Excelsior	12	6	1	5	+0	19
6	Feyenoord	12	5	3	4	+10	18
7	VVV Venlo	12	4	6	2	-1	18
8	Heerenveen	12	4	5	3	+3	17
9	Utrecht	11	5	2	4	+0	17
10	Zwolle	12	4	4	4	-7	16
11	Den Haag	10	4	2	4	-4	14
12	NAC Breda	13	1	5	7	-8	8
13	Willem II	12	2	2	8	-14	8
14	Groningen	12	1	3	8	-10	6
15	Twente	12	1	2	9	-11	5
16	Roda	12	1	2	9	-19	5
17	Sparta Rotterdam	13	0	4	9	-17	4
18	Heracles	12	0	3	9	-23	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.