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Ligue 1
Referee: Lionel Jaffredo
Toulouse
T S S S T
3–1
Full-time
Monaco
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Monaco
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
4,3
Scored
1,2
3,2
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+2,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 63%
50%
75%
Points per game
1,8
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
50%
88%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,1
3,9
Scored
1,4
2,8
Conceded
0,8
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%
17 Shots 4
6 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 1
4 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Toulouse 4. · Monaco 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Nice 8 6 2 0 +9 20
2 Monaco 8 6 1 1 +13 19
3 Paris SG 8 5 1 2 +11 16
4 Toulouse 8 4 2 2 +5 14
5 Lyon 8 4 1 3 +6 13
6 Bordeaux 8 4 1 3 +1 13
7 Rennes 8 4 1 3 -1 13
8 Metz 8 4 1 3 -6 13
9 St Etienne 8 3 3 2 +2 12
10 Guingamp 8 3 2 3 +1 11
11 Bastia 8 3 1 4 +0 10
12 Angers 8 3 1 4 -1 10
13 Caen 8 3 1 4 -7 10
14 Marseille 8 2 3 3 +0 9
15 Dijon 8 2 2 4 -2 8
16 Nantes 8 2 2 4 -4 8
17 Montpellier 8 1 4 3 -6 7
18 Lille 8 2 1 5 -6 7
19 Lorient 8 2 0 6 -8 6
20 Nancy 8 1 2 5 -7 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Toulouse Monaco
3′
V. Germain 0–1
Boschilia
Martin Braithwaite 🟨
21′
29′
🟨 Kamil Glik
Half-time 0–1
59′
🔁 T. Lemar
↦ Boschilia
1–1 O. Trejo
M. Braithwaite
65′
70′
🔁 D. Sidibé
↦ A. Raggi
Somália 🔁
↦ O. Trejo
77′
Issa Diop 🟨
80′
80′
🔁 T. Bakayoko
↦ V. Germain
2–1 M. Braithwaite
Somália
84′
C. Michelin 🔁
↦ J. Durmaz
87′
3–1 M. Braithwaite
87′
O. Edouard 🔁
↦ M. Braithwaite
90′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Toulouse

4-2-3-1
40 A. Lafont G
29 F. Moubandje D
6 C. Jullien D
20 S. Yago D
12 Issiaga Sylla D
5 I. Diop D
10 O. Trejo M
21 J. Durmaz M
23 Y. Bodiger M
27 A. Blin M
9 M. Braithwaite F
Bench (7)
19 Somália
13 C. Michelin
18 O. Edouard
1 M. Goicoechea
17 I. Sangaré
26 M. Cafaro
15 K. Adou

Coach: P. Dupraz

Monaco

4-4-2
1 D. Subašić G
24 A. Raggi D
25 K. Glik D
23 B. Mendy D
2 Fabinho M
5 Jemerson D
8 João Moutinho M
26 Boschilia F
10 Bernardo Silva M
18 V. Germain F
11 G. Carrillo F
Bench (7)
27 T. Lemar
19 D. Sidibé
14 T. Bakayoko
16 M. De Sanctis
28 C. Jean
29 K. Mbappe Lottin
34 A. Diallo

Coach: Leonardo Jardim

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Lionel Jaffredo · 29 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
9,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.