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Ligue 1

Referee: Antony Gautier

Nice

U S U S T

0–1

Full-time

Toulouse

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 35%

43%

26%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

57%

39%

Both score Ø 48%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

75% Possession 25%

14 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 6. · Toulouse 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	20	2	2	+58	62
2	Marseille	24	15	6	3	+26	51
3	Lyon	23	14	6	3	+27	48
4	Monaco	23	14	5	4	+29	47
5	Nantes	23	11	4	8	+1	37
6	Nice	23	10	4	9	-4	34
7	Montpellier	23	7	10	6	+1	31
8	Rennes	23	9	4	10	-4	31
9	Bordeaux	23	8	5	10	-5	29
10	Guingamp	23	8	5	10	-8	29
11	Dijon	23	8	4	11	-13	28
12	Strasbourg	23	7	6	10	-11	27
13	Caen	23	8	3	12	-11	27
14	St Etienne	23	7	5	11	-16	26
15	Amiens	23	7	4	12	-5	25
16	Angers	23	5	10	8	-6	25
17	Lille	24	7	4	13	-16	25
18	Troyes	23	7	3	13	-10	24
19	Toulouse	23	6	5	12	-11	23
20	Metz	24	5	3	16	-22	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	12	0	0	+39	36
2	Monaco	12	9	2	1	+21	29
3	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+19	27
4	Dijon	12	7	2	3	+6	23
5	Lyon	11	6	4	1	+10	22
6	Nice	12	7	1	4	+3	22
7	Guingamp	12	5	4	3	+2	19
8	Nantes	11	6	1	4	+2	19
9	St Etienne	12	5	4	3	-1	19
10	Strasbourg	11	5	3	3	+3	18
11	Toulouse	11	5	3	3	+3	18
12	Amiens	11	5	2	4	+4	17
13	Montpellier	12	4	5	3	+3	17
14	Bordeaux	11	5	2	4	+1	17
15	Troyes	12	5	2	5	+0	17
16	Caen	12	5	2	5	-2	17
17	Rennes	11	5	1	5	-3	16
18	Lille	12	4	3	5	-4	15
19	Angers	11	3	4	4	-4	13
20	Metz	12	3	1	8	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	2	2	+19	26
2	Lyon	12	8	2	2	+17	26
3	Marseille	12	7	3	2	+7	24
4	Monaco	11	5	3	3	+8	18
5	Nantes	12	5	3	4	-1	18
6	Rennes	12	4	3	5	-1	15
7	Montpellier	11	3	5	3	-2	14
8	Angers	12	2	6	4	-2	12
9	Bordeaux	12	3	3	6	-6	12
10	Nice	11	3	3	5	-7	12
11	Caen	11	3	1	7	-9	10
12	Guingamp	11	3	1	7	-10	10
13	Lille	12	3	1	8	-12	10
14	Strasbourg	12	2	3	7	-14	9
15	Amiens	12	2	2	8	-9	8
16	Metz	12	2	2	8	-12	8
17	Troyes	11	2	1	8	-10	7
18	St Etienne	11	2	1	8	-15	7
19	Toulouse	12	1	2	9	-14	5
20	Dijon	11	1	2	8	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.