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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Monaco

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

2,3

0,5

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/34 matches

Win Ø 53%

76%

29%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

82%

41%

Both score Ø 50%

55%

44%

Average goals

3,6

2,1

Scored

2,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

29 Shots 7

11 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

11 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monaco 1. · Toulouse 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	33	25	5	3	+64	80
2	Paris SG	34	25	5	4	+48	80
3	Nice	34	21	11	2	+28	74
4	Lyon	35	18	4	13	+26	58
5	Bordeaux	34	15	10	9	+10	55
6	Marseille	34	14	10	10	+10	52
7	St Etienne	33	11	13	9	+6	46
8	Nantes	34	12	9	13	-14	45
9	Rennes	34	10	14	10	-6	44
10	Guingamp	34	12	8	14	-7	44
11	Toulouse	34	10	12	12	-1	42
12	Lille	34	11	7	16	-7	40
13	Montpellier	34	10	9	15	-10	39
14	Angers	35	11	6	18	-13	39
15	Metz	34	9	9	16	-35	36
16	Lorient	34	10	4	20	-23	34
17	Caen	34	9	6	19	-25	33
18	Dijon	34	7	11	16	-10	32
19	Nancy	34	8	8	18	-19	32
20	Bastia	34	6	11	17	-22	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	16	14	1	1	+42	43
2	Nice	17	13	4	0	+23	43
3	Paris SG	17	12	5	0	+30	41
4	Marseille	17	11	4	2	+18	37
5	Lyon	17	11	0	6	+19	33
6	Guingamp	16	10	3	3	+12	33
7	Rennes	17	9	6	2	+11	33
8	Bordeaux	18	9	5	4	+8	32
9	Toulouse	17	8	5	4	+11	29
10	Montpellier	17	8	5	4	+11	29
11	St Etienne	17	7	8	2	+11	29
12	Angers	18	7	5	6	+4	26
13	Metz	17	6	6	5	-8	24
14	Dijon	17	6	5	6	+4	23
15	Lorient	17	7	2	8	-4	23
16	Caen	17	7	2	8	-11	23
17	Nantes	17	6	4	7	-9	22
18	Lille	17	6	3	8	-1	21
19	Nancy	17	6	3	8	-1	21
20	Bastia	17	3	10	4	+0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	0	4	+18	39
2	Monaco	17	11	4	2	+22	37
3	Nice	17	8	7	2	+5	31
4	Lyon	18	7	4	7	+7	25
5	Bordeaux	16	6	5	5	+2	23
6	Nantes	17	6	5	6	-5	23
7	Lille	17	5	4	8	-6	19
8	St Etienne	16	4	5	7	-5	17
9	Marseille	17	3	6	8	-8	15
10	Toulouse	17	2	7	8	-12	13
11	Angers	17	4	1	12	-17	13
12	Metz	17	3	3	11	-27	12
13	Rennes	17	1	8	8	-17	11
14	Nancy	17	2	5	10	-18	11
15	Lorient	17	3	2	12	-19	11
16	Guingamp	18	2	5	11	-19	11
17	Caen	17	2	4	11	-14	10
18	Montpellier	17	2	4	11	-21	10
19	Bastia	17	3	1	13	-22	10
20	Dijon	17	1	6	10	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.