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Ligue 1

Referee: Amaury Delerue

Monaco

S U U T S

2–3

Full-time

Lorient

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

1,8

2,4

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

1,8

2,4

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

63% Possession 37%

13 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monaco 10. · Lorient 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+7	14
2	Rennes	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	Caen	6	4	0	2	+0	12
4	Reims	6	3	2	1	+4	11
5	Angers	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	St Etienne	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Guingamp	6	3	0	3	-1	9
8	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Monaco	5	2	2	1	-1	8
11	Bordeaux	6	1	4	1	+1	7
12	Lille	6	1	4	1	+0	7
13	Bastia	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	Nantes	5	2	1	2	-2	7
15	Marseille	5	2	0	3	+5	6
16	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
17	Lorient	5	1	2	2	-2	5
18	Troyes	6	0	3	3	-9	3
19	Montpellier	6	0	1	5	-6	1
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	6	0	1	5	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reims	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Marseille	3	2	0	1	+8	6
4	Bastia	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Guingamp	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Nantes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Caen	3	2	0	1	-2	6
8	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Angers	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Bordeaux	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Lorient	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	St Etienne	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Nice	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Troyes	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Lyon	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Monaco	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Montpellier	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Caen	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Angers	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Rennes	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	St Etienne	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Reims	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Bordeaux	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Lille	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Guingamp	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Toulouse	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Bastia	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Troyes	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.