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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Atalanta

S T U S S

3–3

Full-time

Roma

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,3

3,5

Scored

3,0

2,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 45%

45%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

70%

55%

Both score Ø 58%

55%

60%

Average goals

3,6

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,9

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

64% Possession 36%

23 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 5

10 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 8. · Roma 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	20	18	2	0	+30	56
2	Napoli	21	15	3	3	+21	48
3	Inter	20	12	4	4	+17	40
4	Milan	21	9	8	4	+8	35
5	Sampdoria	21	9	6	6	+13	33
6	Roma	20	9	6	5	+11	33
7	Lazio	20	9	5	6	+6	32
8	Atalanta	20	9	4	7	+17	31
9	Fiorentina	21	7	9	5	+8	30
10	Sassuolo	21	7	8	6	+1	29
11	Parma	20	8	4	8	-5	28
12	Torino	20	6	9	5	+4	27
13	Cagliari	21	4	9	8	-11	21
14	Genoa	20	5	5	10	-12	20
15	Udinese	21	4	6	11	-12	18
16	Spal	20	4	6	10	-12	18
17	Empoli	20	4	5	11	-15	17
18	Bologna	20	2	8	10	-14	14
19	Chievo	21	1	8	12	-25	11
20	Frosinone	20	1	7	12	-30	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	10	1	0	+17	31
2	Napoli	11	9	2	0	+18	29
3	Inter	10	7	2	1	+13	23
4	Roma	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Milan	11	6	3	2	+4	21
6	Sampdoria	10	6	2	2	+11	20
7	Fiorentina	10	5	3	2	+9	18
8	Lazio	10	5	3	2	+6	18
9	Sassuolo	11	4	5	2	+1	17
10	Genoa	11	4	4	3	+1	16
11	Cagliari	10	3	6	1	+3	15
12	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+8	14
13	Torino	9	4	1	4	+1	13
14	Parma	10	3	4	3	-1	13
15	Empoli	10	4	1	5	-2	13
16	Spal	10	2	5	3	-3	11
17	Udinese	11	3	2	6	-6	11
18	Bologna	9	2	3	4	-4	9
19	Chievo	11	1	4	6	-10	7
20	Frosinone	10	0	5	5	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Napoli	10	6	1	3	+3	19
3	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	+9	17
4	Inter	10	5	2	3	+4	17
5	Parma	10	5	0	5	-4	15
6	Milan	10	3	5	2	+4	14
7	Torino	11	2	8	1	+3	14
8	Lazio	10	4	2	4	+0	14
9	Sampdoria	11	3	4	4	+2	13
10	Sassuolo	10	3	3	4	+0	12
11	Roma	10	3	3	4	+0	12
12	Fiorentina	11	2	6	3	-1	12
13	Udinese	10	1	4	5	-6	7
14	Spal	10	2	1	7	-9	7
15	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-14	6
16	Bologna	11	0	5	6	-10	5
17	Frosinone	10	1	2	7	-15	5
18	Empoli	10	0	4	6	-13	4
19	Genoa	9	1	1	7	-13	4
20	Chievo	10	0	4	6	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.