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Bundesliga
Referee: Manuel Gräfe
1–2
Full-time
Leverkusen
S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches
Win Ø 29%
25%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
25%
25%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,8
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
1,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%
16 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 3
7 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 5
3 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 11. · Leverkusen 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 5 4 1 0 +9 13
2 Werder Bremen 5 3 2 0 +4 11
3 Hertha 5 3 1 1 +3 10
4 Dortmund 4 2 2 0 +5 8
5 Hoffenheim 5 2 1 2 +1 7
6 Wolfsburg 4 2 1 1 +1 7
7 M'gladbach 4 2 1 1 +1 7
8 Mainz 4 2 1 1 +1 7
9 Freiburg 5 2 1 2 -1 7
10 Nurnberg 4 1 2 1 +1 5
11 Fortuna Dusseldorf 4 1 2 1 +0 5
12 Augsburg 5 1 2 2 -1 5
13 RB Leipzig 4 1 2 1 -2 5
14 Ein Frankfurt 4 1 1 2 -1 4
15 Leverkusen 4 1 0 3 -5 3
16 Stuttgart 4 0 2 2 -4 2
17 Hannover 5 0 2 3 -5 2
18 Schalke 04 5 0 0 5 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Fortuna Dusseldorf Leverkusen
Kaan Ayhan 🟨
42′
42′
🟨 Kai Havertz
42′
🟨 Leon Bailey
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 M. Weiser
↦ T. Jedvaj
50′
K. Volland 0–1
D. Kohr
D. Lukebakio 🔁
↦ B. Raman
58′
60′
K. Volland 0–2
K. Havertz
M. Ducksch 🔁
↦ K. Stöger
65′
65′
🔁 J. Brandt
↦ K. Havertz
72′
🔁 A. Dragović
↦ L. Bender
Alfredo Morales 🟨
73′
T. Usami 🔁
↦ J. Zimmer
74′
1–2 R. Hennings
94′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Fortuna Dusseldorf

4-1-4-1
1 M. Rensing G
35 M. Kamiński D
23 N. Gießelmann D
5 K. Ayhan D
6 A. Morales M
25 M. Zimmermann M
22 K. Stöger M
39 J. Zimmer M
31 M. Sobottka M
28 R. Hennings F
9 B. Raman M
Bench (7)
20 D. Lukebakio
10 M. Ducksch
33 T. Usami
12 J. Theissen
13 A. Bodzek
19 D. Lovren
32 R. Bormuth

Coach: F. Funkel

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
1 L. Hradecky G
5 S. Bender D
18 Wendell D
16 T. Jedvaj D
4 J. Tah D
8 L. Bender M
21 D. Kohr M
29 K. Havertz M
31 K. Volland F
11 I. Thelin F
9 L. Bailey M
Bench (7)
23 M. Weiser
10 J. Brandt
6 A. Dragović
7 Paulinho
13 L. Alario
28 R. Özcan
30 S. Schreck

Coach: H. Herrlich

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Manuel Gräfe · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.