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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Napoli

S S S S S

2–4

Full-time

Roma

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 72%

85%

58%

Points per game

2,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

58%

35%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

0,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

66% Possession 34%

26 Shots 10

13 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 11

10 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 1. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	26	22	3	1	+45	69
2	Juventus	26	22	2	2	+48	68
3	Lazio	27	16	4	7	+30	52
4	Inter	26	14	9	3	+21	51
5	Roma	26	15	5	6	+19	50
6	Sampdoria	26	13	5	8	+12	44
7	Milan	26	13	5	8	+7	44
8	Atalanta	25	10	8	7	+8	38
9	Torino	26	8	12	6	+4	36
10	Fiorentina	26	9	8	9	+3	35
11	Udinese	26	10	3	13	-1	33
12	Bologna	27	10	3	14	-6	33
13	Genoa	26	8	6	12	-6	30
14	Cagliari	26	7	4	15	-18	25
15	Chievo	26	6	7	13	-20	25
16	Spal	27	5	8	14	-22	23
17	Sassuolo	26	6	5	15	-31	23
18	Crotone	26	5	6	15	-24	21
19	Verona	26	5	4	17	-27	19
20	Benevento	26	3	1	22	-42	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	10	2	1	+22	32
2	Sampdoria	14	10	2	2	+19	32
3	Juventus	12	10	1	1	+26	31
4	Inter	14	9	4	1	+16	31
5	Roma	14	8	1	5	+7	25
6	Lazio	13	7	2	4	+17	23
7	Milan	12	7	2	3	+2	23
8	Atalanta	13	6	4	3	+8	22
9	Torino	13	5	5	3	+8	20
10	Fiorentina	13	5	4	4	+1	19
11	Bologna	14	5	3	6	+0	18
12	Udinese	13	5	2	6	+2	17
13	Chievo	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Spal	13	3	5	5	-8	14
15	Crotone	13	3	4	6	-7	13
16	Cagliari	13	4	1	8	-9	13
17	Genoa	12	3	2	7	-5	11
18	Sassuolo	13	2	4	7	-12	10
19	Verona	13	3	1	9	-14	10
20	Benevento	13	3	1	9	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	12	1	0	+23	37
2	Juventus	14	12	1	1	+22	37
3	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+13	29
4	Roma	12	7	4	1	+12	25
5	Milan	14	6	3	5	+5	21
6	Inter	12	5	5	2	+5	20
7	Genoa	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Fiorentina	13	4	4	5	+2	16
9	Atalanta	12	4	4	4	+0	16
10	Udinese	13	5	1	7	-3	16
11	Torino	13	3	7	3	-4	16
12	Bologna	13	5	0	8	-6	15
13	Sassuolo	13	4	1	8	-19	13
14	Sampdoria	12	3	3	6	-7	12
15	Cagliari	13	3	3	7	-9	12
16	Verona	13	2	3	8	-13	9
17	Spal	14	2	3	9	-14	9
18	Chievo	13	2	3	8	-16	9
19	Crotone	13	2	2	9	-17	8
20	Benevento	13	0	0	13	-27	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.