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Serie A

Referee: Luca Banti

Roma

T S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Napoli

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

2,7

2,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,5

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 68%

73%

62%

Points per game

2,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

65%

Both score Ø 58%

50%

65%

Average goals

3,1

3,4

Scored

2,2

2,3

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

22 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 2. · Napoli 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	26	22	0	4	+38	66
2	Roma	26	19	2	5	+34	59
3	Napoli	26	16	6	4	+31	54
4	Atalanta	26	16	3	7	+16	51
5	Lazio	26	15	5	6	+16	50
6	Inter	26	15	3	8	+14	48
7	Milan	26	14	5	7	+8	47
8	Fiorentina	26	11	8	7	+7	41
9	Torino	26	9	9	8	+6	36
10	Sampdoria	26	9	8	9	-1	35
11	Chievo	26	10	5	11	-6	35
12	Cagliari	26	9	4	13	-17	31
13	Sassuolo	26	9	3	14	-7	30
14	Udinese	26	8	5	13	-7	29
15	Bologna	26	7	7	12	-15	28
16	Genoa	26	6	8	12	-13	26
17	Empoli	26	5	7	14	-22	22
18	Palermo	26	3	6	17	-28	15
19	Crotone	26	3	4	19	-24	13
20	Pescara	26	2	6	18	-30	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	14	0	0	+29	42
2	Roma	12	12	0	0	+28	36
3	Napoli	14	9	3	2	+14	30
4	Inter	13	9	2	2	+16	29
5	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+12	29
6	Atalanta	12	9	0	3	+8	27
7	Milan	13	8	2	3	+6	26
8	Torino	12	7	4	1	+13	25
9	Fiorentina	13	6	7	0	+8	25
10	Sampdoria	13	7	4	2	+7	25
11	Cagliari	12	7	2	3	+2	23
12	Chievo	14	5	4	5	-4	19
13	Genoa	13	4	6	3	+5	18
14	Udinese	13	5	2	6	+0	17
15	Bologna	13	5	2	6	-4	17
16	Sassuolo	13	5	1	7	-4	16
17	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-9	15
18	Crotone	13	3	2	8	-7	11
19	Pescara	13	1	4	8	-13	7
20	Palermo	13	1	2	10	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	7	3	2	+17	24
2	Juventus	12	8	0	4	+9	24
3	Atalanta	14	7	3	4	+8	24
4	Roma	14	7	2	5	+6	23
5	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+4	21
6	Milan	13	6	3	4	+2	21
7	Inter	13	6	1	6	-2	19
8	Fiorentina	13	5	1	7	-1	16
9	Chievo	12	5	1	6	-2	16
10	Sassuolo	13	4	2	7	-3	14
11	Udinese	13	3	3	7	-7	12
12	Torino	14	2	5	7	-7	11
13	Bologna	13	2	5	6	-11	11
14	Sampdoria	13	2	4	7	-8	10
15	Palermo	13	2	4	7	-12	10
16	Genoa	13	2	2	9	-18	8
17	Cagliari	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Empoli	13	1	4	8	-13	7
19	Pescara	13	1	2	10	-17	5
20	Crotone	13	0	2	11	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.