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Serie A
Referee: Piero Giacomelli
Cagliari
T U S U T
0–5
Full-time
Napoli
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
17%
100%
Points per game
0,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
1,8
2,5
Scored
0,8
2,2
Conceded
1,0
0,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,8
This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 56%
28%
84%
Points per game
1,0
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
52%
56%
Both score Ø 46%
48%
44%
Average goals
2,4
2,8
Scored
0,9
2,2
Conceded
1,4
0,6
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

35% Possession 65%
7 Shots 18
3 Shots on target 8
1 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 2
4 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 5
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cagliari 14. · Napoli 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 25 21 3 1 +40 66
2 Juventus 25 21 2 2 +47 65
3 Lazio 26 16 4 6 +31 52
4 Inter 26 14 9 3 +21 51
5 Roma 26 15 5 6 +19 50
6 Sampdoria 26 13 5 8 +12 44
7 Milan 26 13 5 8 +7 44
8 Atalanta 25 10 8 7 +8 38
9 Torino 26 8 12 6 +4 36
10 Fiorentina 26 9 8 9 +3 35
11 Udinese 26 10 3 13 -1 33
12 Bologna 26 10 3 13 -5 33
13 Genoa 26 8 6 12 -6 30
14 Cagliari 25 7 4 14 -13 25
15 Chievo 26 6 7 13 -20 25
16 Sassuolo 26 6 5 15 -31 23
17 Crotone 26 5 6 15 -24 21
18 Spal 26 4 8 14 -23 20
19 Verona 26 5 4 17 -27 19
20 Benevento 26 3 1 22 -42 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cagliari Napoli
29′
José Callejón 0–1
Allan
31′
🟨 Kalidou Koulibaly
Nicolò Barella 🟨
35′
42′
D. Mertens 0–2
E. Hysaj
Half-time 0–2
A. Ioniţă 🔁
↦ S. Padoin
59′
61′
M. Hamšík 0–3
L. Insigne
A. Cossu 🔁
↦ Han Kwang-Song
62′
64′
🔁 P. Zieliński
↦ D. Mertens
Leandro Castán 🟨
71′
72′
L. Insigne 0–4
73′
🔁 C. Maggio
↦ E. Hysaj
75′
🔁 A. Diawara
↦ Jorginho
A. Deiola 🔁
↦ N. Barella
77′
90′
Mário Rui 0–5
Full-time 0–5

Line-ups

Cagliari

3-5-2
28 A. Cragno G
15 Leandro Castán D
23 L. Ceppitelli D
22 C. Lykogiannis D
13 F. Romagna D
20 S. Padoin M
10 João Pedro M
16 P. Faragò M
18 N. Barella M
30 L. Pavoletti F
32 Han Kwang-Song F
Bench (12)
21 A. Ioniţă
7 A. Cossu
27 A. Deiola
1 Rafael
3 M. Andreolli
4 D. Dessena
9 N. Giannetti
12 S. Miangue
24 D. Ceter
25 M. Sau
26 L. Crosta
38 F. Caligara

Coach: D. López

Napoli

4-3-3
25 Pepe Reina G
33 Albiol D
6 Mário Rui D
26 K. Koulibaly D
23 E. Hysaj D
17 M. Hamšík M
5 Allan M
8 Jorginho M
14 D. Mertens F
7 José Callejón F
24 L. Insigne F
Bench (10)
20 P. Zieliński
11 C. Maggio
42 A. Diawara
19 H. Milić
1 Rafael
22 L. Sepe
27 Z. Machach
30 M. Rog
37 A. Ounas
62 L. Tonelli

Coach: M. Sarri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Piero Giacomelli · 68 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.