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Serie A

Referee: Massimiliano Irrati

Milan

T T U S S

2–1

Full-time

Lazio

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

4,3

Scored

1,0

3,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,3

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 55%

43%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

52%

86%

Both score Ø 60%

48%

71%

Average goals

2,6

3,9

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 10. · Lazio 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	22	18	3	1	+34	57
2	Juventus	22	18	2	2	+37	56
3	Lazio	21	14	4	3	+31	46
4	Inter	22	12	8	2	+20	44
5	Roma	21	12	5	4	+16	41
6	Sampdoria	21	10	4	7	+9	34
7	Atalanta	22	9	6	7	+7	33
8	Udinese	22	10	2	10	+4	32
9	Torino	22	7	11	4	+4	32
10	Milan	21	9	4	8	-1	31
11	Fiorentina	22	7	7	8	+3	28
12	Bologna	22	8	3	11	-6	27
13	Chievo	22	5	7	10	-18	22
14	Sassuolo	22	6	4	12	-20	22
15	Genoa	22	5	6	11	-8	21
16	Cagliari	22	6	3	13	-14	21
17	Crotone	22	5	4	13	-22	19
18	Spal	22	3	8	11	-17	17
19	Verona	22	4	4	14	-23	16
20	Benevento	22	2	1	19	-36	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	9	1	1	+19	28
2	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+18	26
3	Sampdoria	11	8	1	2	+16	25
4	Inter	11	7	3	1	+13	24
5	Roma	11	7	1	3	+7	22
6	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+17	20
7	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+7	18
8	Torino	11	4	5	2	+7	17
9	Milan	10	5	2	3	+0	17
10	Udinese	11	5	1	5	+4	16
11	Fiorentina	11	4	4	3	+2	16
12	Chievo	11	3	4	4	-4	13
13	Bologna	11	3	3	5	-2	12
14	Crotone	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Spal	11	2	5	4	-5	11
16	Cagliari	11	3	1	7	-6	10
17	Sassuolo	11	2	3	6	-9	9
18	Genoa	11	2	2	7	-7	8
19	Benevento	11	2	1	8	-14	7
20	Verona	11	2	1	8	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	11	10	1	0	+16	31
2	Juventus	11	9	1	1	+18	28
3	Lazio	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Inter	11	5	5	1	+7	20
5	Roma	10	5	4	1	+9	19
6	Udinese	11	5	1	5	+0	16
7	Atalanta	11	4	3	4	+0	15
8	Torino	11	3	6	2	-3	15
9	Bologna	11	5	0	6	-4	15
10	Milan	11	4	2	5	-1	14
11	Genoa	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Sassuolo	11	4	1	6	-11	13
13	Fiorentina	11	3	3	5	+1	12
14	Cagliari	11	3	2	6	-8	11
15	Sampdoria	10	2	3	5	-7	9
16	Verona	11	2	3	6	-9	9
17	Chievo	11	2	3	6	-14	9
18	Crotone	11	2	1	8	-16	7
19	Spal	11	1	3	7	-12	6
20	Benevento	11	0	0	11	-22	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.