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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Arsenal

T T S U S

2–0

Full-time

Brighton

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

65% Possession 35%

25 Shots 9

11 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 7. · Brighton 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	1	0	+20	19
2	Man United	7	6	1	0	+19	19
3	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Watford	7	3	3	1	-1	12
6	Liverpool	6	3	2	1	+1	11
7	Arsenal	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Burnley	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Newcastle	6	3	0	3	+1	9
10	West Brom	7	2	3	2	-2	9
11	Huddersfield	7	2	3	2	-2	9
12	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Stoke	7	2	2	3	-4	8
14	Brighton	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-6	7
16	Everton	6	2	1	3	-7	7
17	Leicester	7	1	2	4	-3	5
18	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-5	5
19	Bournemouth	7	1	1	5	-7	4
20	Crystal Palace	7	0	0	7	-17	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Man City	3	2	1	0	+10	7
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Stoke	4	2	1	1	-2	7
6	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	West Brom	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Everton	3	2	0	1	-1	6
11	Huddersfield	4	1	2	1	-3	5
12	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Leicester	3	1	0	2	+0	3
17	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Watford	3	0	2	1	-6	2
19	Swansea	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Man City	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Watford	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Man United	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Burnley	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-4	4
11	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	West Brom	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Leicester	4	0	2	2	-3	2
14	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Arsenal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	West Ham	4	0	1	3	-8	1
19	Bournemouth	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Crystal Palace	4	0	0	4	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.