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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Carpi

T S U S T

1–3

Full-time

Lazio

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Carpi Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 31%

22%

39%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

56%

47%

Both score Ø 51%

58%

44%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

52% Possession 48%

26 Shots 16

9 Shots on target 7

7 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

9 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Carpi 17. · Lazio 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	36	28	4	4	+51	88
2	Roma	37	22	11	4	+40	77
3	Napoli	36	23	7	6	+43	76
4	Inter	37	20	7	10	+14	67
5	Fiorentina	36	17	9	10	+16	60
6	Milan	37	15	12	10	+8	57
7	Sassuolo	36	14	13	9	+6	55
8	Lazio	36	14	9	13	+0	51
9	Chievo	37	13	10	14	-2	49
10	Torino	36	12	9	15	-1	45
11	Genoa	36	12	7	17	-5	43
12	Empoli	37	11	10	16	-10	43
13	Atalanta	36	10	11	15	-7	41
14	Bologna	37	11	8	18	-12	41
15	Sampdoria	36	10	10	16	-5	40
16	Udinese	36	10	8	18	-24	38
17	Carpi	36	8	11	17	-19	35
18	Palermo	36	9	8	19	-28	35
19	Frosinone	36	8	7	21	-36	31
20	Verona	36	4	13	19	-29	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	18	15	3	0	+33	48
2	Juventus	18	15	2	1	+26	47
3	Roma	19	13	5	1	+27	44
4	Inter	19	13	2	4	+14	41
5	Fiorentina	18	11	4	3	+18	37
6	Lazio	18	10	3	5	+11	33
7	Genoa	18	10	3	5	+11	33
8	Milan	18	9	6	3	+8	33
9	Atalanta	18	8	5	5	+6	29
10	Sassuolo	18	7	8	3	+3	29
11	Sampdoria	18	8	4	6	+7	28
12	Chievo	18	7	7	4	+7	28
13	Torino	18	6	6	6	+1	24
14	Empoli	18	6	6	6	+1	24
15	Carpi	18	6	5	7	-1	23
16	Frosinone	18	6	4	8	-7	22
17	Udinese	18	6	4	8	-9	22
18	Bologna	19	5	5	9	-1	20
19	Palermo	18	5	4	9	-7	19
20	Verona	18	3	6	9	-10	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	13	2	3	+25	41
2	Roma	18	9	6	3	+13	33
3	Napoli	18	8	4	6	+10	28
4	Sassuolo	18	7	5	6	+3	26
5	Inter	18	7	5	6	+0	26
6	Milan	19	6	6	7	+0	24
7	Fiorentina	18	6	5	7	-2	23
8	Torino	18	6	3	9	-2	21
9	Chievo	19	6	3	10	-9	21
10	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-11	21
11	Empoli	19	5	4	10	-11	19
12	Lazio	18	4	6	8	-11	18
13	Udinese	18	4	4	10	-15	16
14	Palermo	18	4	4	10	-21	16
15	Sampdoria	18	2	6	10	-12	12
16	Atalanta	18	2	6	10	-13	12
17	Carpi	18	2	6	10	-18	12
18	Genoa	18	2	4	12	-16	10
19	Verona	18	1	7	10	-19	10
20	Frosinone	18	2	3	13	-29	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.