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La Liga

Referee: David Fernandez Borbalan

Real Madrid

S S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Valencia

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

3,0

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 52%

72%

31%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

72%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

56%

53%

Average goals

3,8

2,4

Scored

2,9

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

47% Possession 53%

15 Shots 17

8 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Valencia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	36	27	4	5	+75	85
2	Ath Madrid	36	27	4	5	+44	85
3	Real Madrid	36	26	6	4	+73	84
4	Villarreal	36	18	10	8	+13	64
5	Ath Bilbao	36	17	7	12	+11	58
6	Celta	36	16	9	11	-7	57
7	Sevilla	36	14	10	12	+6	52
8	Malaga	36	11	12	13	+1	45
9	Valencia	36	11	11	14	+0	44
10	Las Palmas	36	12	7	17	-5	43
11	Sociedad	36	11	9	16	-5	42
12	Eibar	36	11	9	16	-10	42
13	Betis	36	10	11	15	-19	41
14	Espanol	36	11	7	18	-31	40
15	La Coruna	36	7	18	11	-16	39
16	Granada	36	9	9	18	-23	36
17	Vallecano	36	8	11	17	-22	35
18	Sp Gijon	36	9	8	19	-24	35
19	Getafe	36	9	8	19	-29	35
20	Levante	36	7	8	21	-32	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	15	1	2	+53	46
2	Barcelona	18	15	1	2	+48	46
3	Ath Madrid	18	14	3	1	+24	45
4	Sevilla	18	14	1	3	+20	43
5	Villarreal	18	12	4	2	+16	40
6	Ath Bilbao	18	10	4	4	+16	34
7	Celta	18	8	6	4	+3	30
8	Espanol	18	8	5	5	-8	29
9	Las Palmas	18	8	4	6	+8	28
10	Eibar	18	8	4	6	+4	28
11	Malaga	18	7	6	5	+8	27
12	Valencia	18	6	7	5	+3	25
13	Vallecano	18	7	4	7	-2	25
14	Getafe	18	6	6	6	+3	24
15	Sociedad	18	6	5	7	+1	23
16	Granada	18	6	5	7	-2	23
17	Levante	18	6	5	7	-4	23
18	Sp Gijon	18	6	4	8	-2	22
19	Betis	18	5	6	7	-7	21
20	La Coruna	18	4	8	6	-7	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	18	13	1	4	+20	40
2	Barcelona	18	12	3	3	+27	39
3	Real Madrid	18	11	5	2	+20	38
4	Celta	18	8	3	7	-10	27
5	Villarreal	18	6	6	6	-3	24
6	Ath Bilbao	18	7	3	8	-5	24
7	Betis	18	5	5	8	-12	20
8	Valencia	18	5	4	9	-3	19
9	Sociedad	18	5	4	9	-6	19
10	La Coruna	18	3	10	5	-9	19
11	Malaga	18	4	6	8	-7	18
12	Las Palmas	18	4	3	11	-13	15
13	Eibar	18	3	5	10	-14	14
14	Granada	18	3	4	11	-21	13
15	Sp Gijon	18	3	4	11	-22	13
16	Espanol	18	3	2	13	-23	11
17	Getafe	18	3	2	13	-32	11
18	Vallecano	18	1	7	10	-20	10
19	Sevilla	18	0	9	9	-14	9
20	Levante	18	1	3	14	-28	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.