Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Palermo
Lazio
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Juventus
|
32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | +41 | 76 |
| 2 |
Napoli
|
32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | +39 | 70 |
| 3 |
Roma
|
31 | 18 | 9 | 4 | +34 | 63 |
| 4 |
Inter
|
32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | +12 | 58 |
| 5 |
Fiorentina
|
32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | +16 | 56 |
| 6 |
Milan
|
32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | +7 | 49 |
| 7 |
Sassuolo
|
32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | +5 | 48 |
| 8 |
Chievo
|
32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -2 | 44 |
| 9 |
Lazio
|
31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 42 |
| 10 |
Genoa
|
32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | +0 | 40 |
| 11 |
Torino
|
32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 39 |
| 12 |
Empoli
|
32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 |
Sampdoria
|
32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
| 14 |
Bologna
|
31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | -6 | 36 |
| 15 |
Atalanta
|
32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 36 |
| 16 |
Udinese
|
32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -19 | 34 |
| 17 |
Carpi
|
32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -21 | 28 |
| 18 |
Palermo
|
31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | -25 | 28 |
| 19 |
Frosinone
|
32 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -31 | 27 |
| 20 |
Verona
|
32 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -27 | 22 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
G. Pezzella
M
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Chievo
Palermo
Empoli
Palermo
Palermo
Napoli
Inter
Palermo
Palermo
Bologna
Andrea Gervasoni · 19 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,37 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.