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Serie A
Referee: Nicola Rizzoli
Carpi
U S S T T
4–1
Full-time
Genoa
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Carpi Genoa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,7
This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 27%
19%
34%
Points per game
0,9
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 49%
59%
38%
Both score Ø 51%
63%
38%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
0,9
1,2
Conceded
1,6
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

49% Possession 51%
15 Shots 16
10 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
3 Corners 7
0 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Carpi 17. · Genoa 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 32 24 4 4 +41 76
2 Napoli 32 21 7 4 +39 70
3 Roma 32 18 10 4 +34 64
4 Inter 32 17 7 8 +12 58
5 Fiorentina 32 16 8 8 +16 56
6 Milan 32 13 10 9 +7 49
7 Sassuolo 32 12 12 8 +5 48
8 Lazio 32 12 9 11 +0 45
9 Chievo 32 12 8 12 -2 44
10 Torino 33 11 9 13 -2 42
11 Genoa 32 11 7 14 +0 40
12 Empoli 32 10 9 13 -7 39
13 Bologna 33 10 7 16 -7 37
14 Sampdoria 32 9 9 14 -3 36
15 Atalanta 32 9 9 14 -7 36
16 Udinese 32 9 7 16 -19 34
17 Carpi 32 6 10 16 -21 28
18 Palermo 32 7 7 18 -28 28
19 Frosinone 32 7 6 19 -31 27
20 Verona 32 3 13 16 -27 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

29. Nov -15 Genoa – Carpi 1–2

Match report

Carpi Genoa
Riccardo Gagliolo 🟨
22′
25′
🟨 Armando Izzo
34′
L. Pavoletti 0–1
B. Džemaili
Lorenzo Lollo 🟨
42′
45′
🟨 Armando Izzo
45′
🟥 Armando Izzo
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 D. Lazović
↦ A. Cerci
46′
🔁 R. Fiamozzi
↦ L. Rigoni
1–1 A. Di Gaudio
J. Mbakogu
49′
2–1 L. Pasciuti
A. Di Gaudio
49′
3–1 L. Lollo
L. Pasciuti
50′
K. Lasagna 🔁
↦ L. Lollo
52′
Fabrizio Poli 🟨
53′
S. Sabelli 🔁
↦ A. Di Gaudio
61′
Jerry Mbakogu 🟨
67′
76′
🔁 Capel
↦ G. Marchese
M. Crimi 🔁
↦ I. Cofie
79′
4–1 S. Sabelli
86′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Carpi

27 V. Belec G
13 F. Poli D
21 S. Romagnoli D
3 G. Letizia D
6 R. Gagliolo D
8 R. Bianco M
4 I. Cofie M
20 L. Lollo M
11 A. Di Gaudio F
19 L. Pasciuti M
99 J. Mbakogu F
Bench (12)
15 K. Lasagna
2 S. Sabelli
17 M. Crimi
5 C. Zaccardo
7 F. Porcari
10 S. Verdi
16 J. de Guzmán
23 E. Suagher
25 M. Mancosu
29 Raphael Martinho
36 F. Daprelà
91 S. Colombi

Genoa

23 E. Lamanna G
15 G. Marchese D
3 C. Ansaldi M
4 S. De Maio D
5 A. Izzo D
31 B. Džemaili M
11 A. Cerci F
30 L. Rigoni M
77 P. Tachtsidis M
93 D. Laxalt M
19 L. Pavoletti F
Bench (11)
22 D. Lazović
29 R. Fiamozzi
16 Capel
17 Suso
18 J. Ntcham
32 A. Donnarumma
34 Gabriel Silva
37 G. Panico
39 D. Sommariva
42 T. Matavž
97 P. Ghiglione

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Nicola Rizzoli · 34 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
14,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,38 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.