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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Nacional

T S T T T

2–2

Full-time

Belenenses

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 30%

31%

28%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

53%

59%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,6

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

8 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 9. · Belenenses 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	33	26	5	2	+54	83
2	Benfica	32	27	1	4	+61	82
3	Porto	33	22	4	7	+33	70
4	Sp Braga	33	16	10	7	+23	58
5	Arouca	32	13	13	6	+9	52
6	Pacos Ferreira	33	13	9	11	+1	48
7	Rio Ave	33	13	8	12	-1	47
8	Estoril	32	13	7	12	+0	46
9	Nacional	32	10	7	15	-13	37
10	Belenenses	32	9	10	13	-23	37
11	Guimaraes	32	8	12	12	-11	36
12	Maritimo	32	10	5	17	-15	35
13	Moreirense	32	8	9	15	-14	33
14	Boavista	32	7	9	16	-14	30
15	Vitoria Setubal	33	6	11	16	-21	29
16	U. Madeira	32	7	8	17	-21	29
17	Tondela	33	7	6	20	-22	27
18	Academica	33	5	10	18	-26	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	0	2	+36	42
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+27	42
3	Sp Braga	16	11	4	1	+28	37
4	Porto	16	11	2	3	+18	35
5	Estoril	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Arouca	16	8	5	3	+10	29
7	Rio Ave	17	9	1	7	+2	28
8	Nacional	16	8	3	5	+5	27
9	Pacos Ferreira	17	7	4	6	+2	25
10	U. Madeira	16	6	6	4	+3	24
11	Maritimo	16	7	2	7	+4	23
12	Belenenses	16	5	5	6	-8	20
13	Academica	17	5	5	7	-8	20
14	Guimaraes	16	4	7	5	+1	19
15	Boavista	16	3	5	8	-8	14
16	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	8	6	-10	14
17	Moreirense	16	2	5	9	-10	11
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-13	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	13	2	1	+27	41
2	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+25	40
3	Porto	17	11	2	4	+15	35
4	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	5	5	-1	23
5	Arouca	16	5	8	3	-1	23
6	Moreirense	16	6	4	6	-4	22
7	Sp Braga	17	5	6	6	-5	21
8	Rio Ave	16	4	7	5	-3	19
9	Tondela	17	5	2	10	-9	17
10	Guimaraes	16	4	5	7	-12	17
11	Belenenses	16	4	5	7	-15	17
12	Boavista	16	4	4	8	-6	16
13	Estoril	16	4	4	8	-8	16
14	Vitoria Setubal	17	4	3	10	-11	15
15	Maritimo	16	3	3	10	-19	12
16	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-18	10
17	Academica	16	0	5	11	-18	5
18	U. Madeira	16	1	2	13	-24	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.