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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Liverpool

S S S U U

2–3

Full-time

Swansea

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,7

3,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-2,3

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 41%

62%

19%

Points per game

2,1

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

62%

76%

Both score Ø 62%

67%

57%

Average goals

3,5

3,4

Scored

2,3

1,1

Conceded

1,1

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

73% Possession 27%

16 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 3. · Swansea 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	21	17	1	3	+30	52
2	Tottenham	21	13	6	2	+29	45
3	Liverpool	21	13	6	2	+25	45
4	Arsenal	21	13	5	3	+26	44
5	Man City	21	13	3	5	+15	42
6	Man United	21	11	7	3	+12	40
7	Everton	21	9	6	6	+9	33
8	West Brom	21	8	5	8	+0	29
9	Stoke	21	7	6	8	-6	27
10	Burnley	21	8	2	11	-8	26
11	Bournemouth	21	7	4	10	-7	25
12	West Ham	21	7	4	10	-9	25
13	Southampton	21	6	6	9	-7	24
14	Watford	21	6	5	10	-13	23
15	Leicester	21	5	6	10	-10	21
16	Middlesbrough	21	4	8	9	-5	20
17	Crystal Palace	21	4	4	13	-10	16
18	Hull	21	4	4	13	-25	16
19	Sunderland	21	4	3	14	-20	15
20	Swansea	21	4	3	14	-26	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	2	0	+20	29
2	Chelsea	10	9	0	1	+22	27
3	Burnley	12	8	1	3	+9	25
4	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+19	23
5	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
6	Everton	11	6	4	1	+12	22
7	Man City	10	6	3	1	+9	21
8	Man United	11	5	5	1	+8	20
9	Leicester	11	5	3	3	+3	18
10	West Brom	10	5	2	3	+5	17
11	Bournemouth	10	5	2	3	+4	17
12	West Ham	11	5	2	4	-4	17
13	Stoke	10	4	3	3	+0	15
14	Southampton	10	4	3	3	-1	15
15	Watford	11	4	3	4	-2	15
16	Hull	11	3	3	5	-7	12
17	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	-1	11
18	Sunderland	11	3	2	6	-6	11
19	Swansea	11	2	2	7	-13	8
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	11	8	1	2	+8	25
2	Liverpool	12	6	4	2	+6	22
3	Arsenal	11	6	3	2	+15	21
4	Man City	11	7	0	4	+6	21
5	Man United	10	6	2	2	+4	20
6	Tottenham	10	4	4	2	+9	16
7	West Brom	11	3	3	5	-5	12
8	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-6	12
9	Everton	10	3	2	5	-3	11
10	Middlesbrough	11	1	6	4	-4	9
11	Southampton	11	2	3	6	-6	9
12	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-8	9
13	West Ham	10	2	2	6	-5	8
14	Bournemouth	11	2	2	7	-11	8
15	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
16	Swansea	10	2	1	7	-13	7
17	Sunderland	10	1	1	8	-14	4
18	Hull	10	1	1	8	-18	4
19	Leicester	10	0	3	7	-13	3
20	Burnley	9	0	1	8	-17	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.