Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Bournemouth
Watford
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Chelsea
|
21 | 17 | 1 | 3 | +30 | 52 |
| 2 |
Tottenham
|
21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | +29 | 45 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
|
22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 45 |
| 4 |
Arsenal
|
21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | +26 | 44 |
| 5 |
Man City
|
21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | +15 | 42 |
| 6 |
Man United
|
21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | +12 | 40 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | +9 | 33 |
| 8 |
West Brom
|
21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | +0 | 29 |
| 9 |
Stoke
|
21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -6 | 27 |
| 10 |
Burnley
|
21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | -8 | 26 |
| 11 |
Bournemouth
|
21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 12 |
West Ham
|
21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -9 | 25 |
| 13 |
Southampton
|
21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -7 | 24 |
| 14 |
Watford
|
21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -13 | 23 |
| 15 |
Leicester
|
21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 16 |
Middlesbrough
|
21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 20 |
| 17 |
Swansea
|
22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -25 | 18 |
| 18 |
Crystal Palace
|
21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 16 |
| 19 |
Hull
|
21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -25 | 16 |
| 20 |
Sunderland
|
21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | -20 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Hull
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
Arsenal
Swansea
Bournemouth
Chelsea
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
Southampton
Lee Mason · 111 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.