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La Liga
Referee: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez
Celta
T S U T T
3–1
Full-time
Malaga
U S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Malaga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,3
3,8
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
1,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,2
This season — La Liga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 35%
38%
31%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
75%
56%
Both score Ø 63%
56%
69%
Average goals
3,5
3,2
Scored
1,6
1,6
Conceded
1,9
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,1
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%
6 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 7
3 Offside 0
17 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Celta 13. · Malaga 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 16 12 4 0 +31 40
2 Sevilla 17 11 3 3 +15 36
3 Barcelona 16 10 4 2 +25 34
4 Ath Madrid 17 9 4 4 +17 31
5 Villarreal 16 8 5 3 +14 29
6 Sociedad 17 9 2 6 +3 29
7 Ath Bilbao 17 8 3 6 +3 27
8 Las Palmas 17 6 6 5 +3 24
9 Eibar 17 6 5 6 +0 23
10 Espanol 17 5 8 4 -2 23
11 Alaves 17 5 7 5 -2 22
12 Malaga 16 5 6 5 -1 21
13 Celta 16 6 3 7 -6 21
14 Betis 17 6 3 8 -9 21
15 La Coruna 17 4 5 8 -5 17
16 Leganes 17 4 4 9 -16 16
17 Valencia 15 3 3 9 -8 12
18 Sp Gijon 17 3 3 11 -17 12
19 Granada 17 1 6 10 -24 9
20 Osasuna 16 1 4 11 -21 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Celta Malaga
1–0 Iago Aspas
Jonny Castro
7′
12′
🔁 Diego Llorente
↦ Miguel Torres
29′
🟨 Pablo Fornals
Half-time 1–0
49′
🟨 Recio
56′
🔁 J. Añor
↦ Pablo Fornals
2–0 D. Wass
T. Bongonda
60′
Pape Diop 🔁
↦ J. Guidetti
64′
P. Sisto 🔁
↦ T. Bongonda
70′
3–0 Fontàs
Iago Aspas
73′
77′
🟨 Ignacio Camacho
79′
🔁 Jony
↦ G. Castro
Sergi Gómez 🟨
85′
Sergi Gómez 🔁
↦ N. Radoja
85′
86′
D. Wass 4–0
own goal
90′
🟨 Juankar
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Celta

4-3-3
13 Rubén Blanco G
22 G. Cabral D
2 Hugo Mallo D
3 Fontàs D
19 Jonny Castro D
5 M. Díaz M
18 D. Wass M
6 N. Radoja M
10 Iago Aspas F
9 J. Guidetti F
7 T. Bongonda M
Bench (7)
28 Pape Diop
11 P. Sisto
20 Sergi Gómez
1 Sergio Álvarez
8 P. Hernández
23 Josep Señé
25 G. Rossi

Coach: E. Berizzo

Malaga

4-2-3-1
1 C. Kameni
23 Miguel Torres D
18 R. Rosales D
7 Juan Carlos D
4 M. Villanueva D
11 G. Castro M
6 Ignacio Camacho M
14 Recio M
31 Pablo Fornals M
8 Michael Santos F
19 Sandro Ramírez F
Bench (7)
5 Diego Llorente
10 J. Añor
21 Jony
13 D. Boyko
17 Duda
29 Luis
39 Javi Ontiveros

Coach: M. Romero

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez · 83 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.