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La Liga

Referee: Alberto Undiano

Villarreal

S T U T S

1–0

Full-time

Real Madrid

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

4,0

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 57%

50%

64%

Points per game

1,7

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

64%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

34% Possession 66%

7 Shots 20

3 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 9

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	11	2	2	+21	35
2	Ath Madrid	15	11	2	2	+15	35
3	Real Madrid	14	9	3	2	+20	30
4	Celta	15	8	4	3	+4	28
5	Villarreal	14	7	3	4	+3	24
6	La Coruna	15	5	8	2	+7	23
7	Sevilla	15	6	4	5	+2	22
8	Valencia	15	5	6	4	+7	21
9	Ath Bilbao	15	6	3	6	+4	21
10	Eibar	15	5	6	4	+2	21
11	Betis	15	5	4	6	-6	19
12	Espanol	15	5	2	8	-11	17
13	Sociedad	15	4	4	7	-3	16
14	Getafe	15	4	3	8	-8	15
15	Sp Gijon	15	4	3	8	-8	15
16	Malaga	15	3	5	7	-5	14
17	Granada	15	3	5	7	-8	14
18	Vallecano	15	4	2	9	-11	14
19	Las Palmas	15	3	4	8	-10	13
20	Levante	15	2	5	8	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	7	1	0	+17	22
2	Ath Madrid	8	6	1	1	+6	19
3	Sevilla	8	6	0	2	+7	18
4	Real Madrid	7	5	1	1	+10	16
5	Villarreal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
6	Getafe	8	4	2	2	+7	14
7	Celta	8	4	2	2	+2	14
8	Valencia	7	3	4	0	+7	13
9	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+6	13
10	Eibar	8	3	3	2	+1	12
11	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Espanol	7	3	2	2	-3	11
13	La Coruna	7	2	4	1	+4	10
14	Vallecano	8	3	1	4	-3	10
15	Malaga	7	2	3	2	+2	9
16	Sociedad	7	2	2	3	-1	8
17	Sp Gijon	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Levante	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Betis	7	1	2	4	-5	5
20	Granada	7	1	2	4	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
2	Real Madrid	7	4	2	1	+10	14
3	Celta	7	4	2	1	+2	14
4	Betis	8	4	2	2	-1	14
5	Barcelona	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	La Coruna	8	3	4	1	+3	13
7	Eibar	7	2	3	2	+1	9
8	Granada	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Valencia	8	2	2	4	+0	8
10	Ath Bilbao	8	2	2	4	-2	8
11	Sociedad	8	2	2	4	-2	8
12	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Sp Gijon	8	2	1	5	-6	7
14	Espanol	8	2	0	6	-8	6
15	Malaga	8	1	2	5	-7	5
16	Levante	7	1	2	4	-9	5
17	Sevilla	7	0	4	3	-5	4
18	Vallecano	7	1	1	5	-8	4
19	Las Palmas	7	0	2	5	-10	2
20	Getafe	7	0	1	6	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.