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Bundesliga

Referee: Bastian Dankert

Freiburg

U U S U T

1–1

Full-time

Werder Bremen

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 36%

27%

45%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

55%

64%

Both score Ø 78%

73%

82%

Average goals

3,1

3,5

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

23 Shots 19

9 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 13. · Werder Bremen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	12	9	3	0	+22	30
2	Ein Frankfurt	12	7	2	3	+15	23
3	M'gladbach	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	RB Leipzig	12	6	4	2	+12	22
5	Bayern Munich	12	6	3	3	+6	21
6	Hoffenheim	12	6	2	4	+9	20
7	Werder Bremen	11	5	2	4	+0	17
8	Hertha	12	4	5	3	-1	17
9	Wolfsburg	12	4	3	5	-1	15
10	Mainz	12	4	3	5	-3	15
11	Leverkusen	12	4	2	6	-6	14
12	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-1	13
13	Freiburg	11	3	4	4	-4	13
14	Schalke 04	12	4	1	7	-4	13
15	Nurnberg	12	2	4	6	-16	10
16	Hannover	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	2	3	7	-15	9
18	Stuttgart	12	2	2	8	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	5	1	0	+14	16
2	M'gladbach	5	5	0	0	+12	15
3	RB Leipzig	6	4	2	0	+12	14
4	Hertha	6	3	2	1	+2	11
5	Mainz	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	1	1	+11	10
7	Hoffenheim	6	3	1	2	+5	10
8	Bayern Munich	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Schalke 04	6	3	0	3	+0	9
10	Nurnberg	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Freiburg	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Werder Bremen	6	2	2	2	-2	8
13	Wolfsburg	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Hannover	5	2	1	2	+0	7
15	Leverkusen	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Augsburg	6	1	3	2	+0	6
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	2	0	4	-3	6
18	Stuttgart	5	1	1	3	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+8	14
2	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+4	13
3	Bayern Munich	6	4	0	2	+5	12
4	Hoffenheim	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Werder Bremen	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	M'gladbach	6	2	2	2	+1	8
7	RB Leipzig	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Wolfsburg	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	Augsburg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Leverkusen	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Hertha	6	1	3	2	-3	6
12	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Schalke 04	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	Stuttgart	7	1	1	5	-9	4
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	0	3	3	-12	3
17	Hannover	6	0	2	4	-8	2
18	Nurnberg	6	0	2	4	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.