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Bundesliga
Referee: Deniz Aytekin
Dortmund
S S S S U
2–0
Full-time
Mainz
S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
1,3
2,7
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
0,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 60%
72%
48%
Points per game
2,3
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
68%
56%
Both score Ø 54%
60%
48%
Average goals
3,4
2,6
Scored
2,4
1,4
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

65% Possession 35%
22 Shots 4
10 Shots on target 0
8 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 8
8 Corners 2
3 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Mainz 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 26 21 3 2 +51 66
2 Dortmund 25 18 4 3 +34 58
3 Hertha 26 13 6 7 +9 45
4 M'gladbach 26 13 3 10 +11 42
5 Schalke 04 26 12 5 9 +3 41
6 Mainz 25 12 4 9 +4 40
7 Leverkusen 26 11 6 9 +4 39
8 Wolfsburg 26 10 7 9 +5 37
9 FC Koln 26 8 9 9 -5 33
10 FC Ingolstadt 04 26 8 9 9 -7 33
11 Stuttgart 26 9 5 12 -9 32
12 Hamburg 26 8 7 11 -5 31
13 Augsburg 26 6 9 11 -8 27
14 Darmstadt 26 6 9 11 -13 27
15 Werder Bremen 26 7 6 13 -18 27
16 Ein Frankfurt 26 5 9 12 -15 24
17 Hoffenheim 26 5 9 12 -15 24
18 Hannover 26 5 2 19 -26 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Oct -15 Mainz – Dortmund 0–2

Match report

Dortmund Mainz
1–0 M. Reus
G. Castro
30′
Half-time 1–0
Ł. Piszczek 🔁
↦ E. Durm
46′
62′
🔁 D. Latza
↦ F. Frei
62′
🔁 K. Onisiwo
↦ C. Clemens
J. Weigl 🔁
↦ N. Şahin
64′
2–0 S. Kagawa
P. Aubameyang
73′
76′
🔁 S. Serdar
↦ Jairo Samperio
A. Ramos 🔁
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
85′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Dortmund

38 R. Bürki G
15 M. Hummels D
25 S. Papastathopoulos D
29 M. Schmelzer D
37 E. Durm M
18 N. Şahin M
23 S. Kagawa M
10 H. Mkhitaryan M
27 G. Castro M
17 P. Aubameyang F
11 M. Reus M
Bench (7)
26 Ł. Piszczek
33 J. Weigl
20 A. Ramos
1 R. Weidenfeller
4 N. Subotić
14 M. Leitner
28 M. Ginter

Mainz

1 L. Karius G
18 D. Brosinski D
3 L. Balogun D
16 S. Bell D
24 G. Bussmann D
14 J. Baumgartlinger M
20 F. Frei M
27 C. Clemens M
10 Y. Malli M
17 Jairo Samperio M
15 J. Córdoba F
Bench (7)
6 D. Latza
21 K. Onisiwo
45 S. Serdar
8 C. Moritz
23 G. Curci
32 P. De Blasis
42 A. Hack

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Deniz Aytekin · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.