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Bundesliga

Referee: Gunter Perl

Mainz

U T U S S

2–3

Full-time

Leverkusen

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

100%

75%

Both score Ø 88%

100%

75%

Average goals

4,5

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 1

5 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 7. · Leverkusen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Dortmund	5	4	0	1	+12	12
3	FC Koln	4	3	1	0	+7	10
4	Ein Frankfurt	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Hertha	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	RB Leipzig	4	2	2	0	+5	8
7	Mainz	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	M'gladbach	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Freiburg	5	2	0	3	-3	6
10	Wolfsburg	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Hoffenheim	4	0	4	0	+0	4
12	Leverkusen	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Darmstadt	4	1	1	2	-7	4
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	0	1	3	-6	1
16	Hamburg	4	0	1	3	-7	1
17	Schalke 04	4	0	0	4	-7	0
18	Werder Bremen	4	0	0	4	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	FC Koln	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Hoffenheim	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Wolfsburg	2	0	1	1	-4	1
14	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-4	1
15	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-4	0
17	Schalke 04	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Mainz	3	2	0	1	+2	6
2	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+4	4
3	FC Koln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Augsburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+3	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Hertha	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Hoffenheim	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	0	1	1	-2	1
12	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Leverkusen	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Hamburg	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Schalke 04	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Freiburg	3	0	0	3	-6	0
17	Darmstadt	2	0	0	2	-8	0
18	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.