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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Stoke

T S T S U

2–2

Full-time

Man United

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,8

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

3,3

Scored

0,7

3,3

Conceded

0,7

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+3,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

36% Possession 64%

10 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 11

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 10

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 12. · Man United 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Man United	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Watford	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Tottenham	4	2	1	1	+4	7
6	Huddersfield	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Arsenal	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Southampton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Stoke	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Swansea	3	1	1	1	-2	4
15	Everton	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	+0	3
17	Leicester	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-6	0
19	Bournemouth	4	0	0	4	-7	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Man City	2	1	1	0	+5	4
5	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Huddersfield	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Southampton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Watford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-4	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Watford	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Man United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-5	1
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Arsenal	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.