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Championship
Referee: Geoff Eltringham
Bolton
T U U T T
0–3
Full-time
Middlesbrough
T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Middlesbrough
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,5
1,7
Scored
0,7
0,7
Conceded
1,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,3
This season — Championship · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 20%
0%
40%
Points per game
0,4
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
60%
20%
Both score Ø 40%
60%
20%
Average goals
2,8
1,4
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
2,0
0,6
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,2
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

34% Possession 66%
9 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 7
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bolton 24. · Middlesbrough 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Cardiff 5 5 0 0 +8 15
2 Ipswich 5 4 0 1 +3 12
3 Leeds 5 3 2 0 +5 11
4 Derby 6 3 1 2 +3 10
5 Wolves 5 3 1 1 +3 10
6 Sheffield United 5 3 0 2 +1 9
7 Nott'm Forest 5 3 0 2 +0 9
8 Preston 5 2 2 1 +1 8
9 Middlesbrough 5 2 1 2 +1 7
10 Hull 6 2 1 3 +0 7
11 QPR 5 2 1 2 +0 7
12 Reading 5 2 1 2 +0 7
13 Bristol City 5 1 3 1 +1 6
14 Fulham 5 1 3 1 +1 6
15 Barnsley 5 2 0 3 +0 6
16 Sheffield Weds 5 1 3 1 +0 6
17 Millwall 5 1 2 2 +2 5
18 Aston Villa 5 1 2 2 -2 5
19 Sunderland 5 1 2 2 -3 5
20 Birmingham 5 1 1 3 -3 4
21 Burton Albion 5 1 1 3 -5 4
22 Norwich 5 1 1 3 -6 4
23 Brentford 5 0 2 3 -4 2
24 Bolton 5 0 2 3 -6 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bolton Middlesbrough
Jem Karacan 🟨
10′
13′
B. Assombalonga 0–1
Adama Traoré
45′
🟨 Adama Traoré
Half-time 0–1
R. Burke 🔁
↦ S. Darby
46′
J. Cullen 🔁
↦ Derik Osede
65′
68′
🔁 M. Johnson
↦ L. Baker
71′
B. Assombalonga 0–2
Adama Traoré
A. Le Fondre 🔁
↦ J. Karacan
76′
76′
🔁 P. Bamford
↦ S. Downing
78′
M. Johnson 0–3
G. Leadbitter
82′
🔁 A. Fletcher
↦ Adama Traoré
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Bolton

4-1-4-1
13 B. Alnwick G
31 D. Wheater D
23 S. Darby D
5 M. Beevers D
17 Derik Osede M
15 A. Robinson D
22 Filipe Morais M
8 J. Karacan M
12 C. Noone M
21 D. Pratley M
14 G. Madine F
Bench (7)
32 R. Burke
16 J. Cullen
9 A. Le Fondre
11 W. Buckley
18 A. Wilbraham
20 A. Armstrong
33 M. Howard

Coach: J. Phillips

Middlesbrough

4-4-1-1
25 D. Randolph G
2 Fábio D
22 C. Christie D
6 B. Gibson D
19 S. Downing F
7 G. Leadbitter M
8 A. Clayton M
30 L. Baker M
37 Adama Traoré F
20 D. Fry D
9 B. Assombalonga F
Bench (7)
21 M. Johnson
11 P. Bamford
18 A. Fletcher
1 D. Konstantopoulos
3 G. Friend
5 R. Shotton
16 J. Howson

Coach: G. Monk

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Geoff Eltringham · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.