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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Middlesbrough

U U S S U

0–3

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,5

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

This season — Championship · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 42%

47%

37%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

21%

58%

Both score Ø 53%

32%

74%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

0,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%

10 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

5 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 3. · Aston Villa 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	12	4	4	+13	40
2	Leeds	19	10	6	3	+13	36
3	Middlesbrough	19	9	8	2	+12	35
4	West Brom	19	10	4	5	+14	34
5	Nott'm Forest	20	8	10	2	+11	34
6	Derby	19	10	4	5	+9	34
7	Sheffield United	20	10	4	6	+8	34
8	Birmingham	20	7	9	4	+6	30
9	Blackburn	20	7	8	5	-4	29
10	Aston Villa	19	7	7	5	+6	28
11	QPR	20	8	4	8	-5	28
12	Stoke	20	6	9	5	+0	27
13	Swansea	20	7	5	8	+1	26
14	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	+0	25
15	Wigan	20	7	4	9	-5	25
16	Sheffield Weds	20	6	5	9	-11	23
17	Preston	20	5	7	8	-4	22
18	Brentford	19	5	6	8	+2	21
19	Hull	20	5	5	10	-9	20
20	Rotherham	20	4	8	8	-11	20
21	Reading	20	4	6	10	-6	18
22	Bolton	20	4	6	10	-13	18
23	Millwall	19	4	5	10	-9	17
24	Ipswich	20	1	8	11	-18	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	10	6	3	1	+11	21
2	Wigan	10	6	3	1	+6	21
3	Norwich	10	7	0	3	+4	21
4	Derby	9	6	2	1	+7	20
5	West Brom	9	6	1	2	+13	19
6	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+7	19
7	Nott'm Forest	10	5	4	1	+5	19
8	Birmingham	10	4	6	0	+8	18
9	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	+7	18
10	Sheffield United	10	5	3	2	+6	18
11	Brentford	10	5	2	3	+8	17
12	Blackburn	10	4	5	1	+3	17
13	Rotherham	10	4	5	1	+3	17
14	Preston	10	4	4	2	+7	16
15	QPR	10	5	1	4	+2	16
16	Millwall	10	4	3	3	+2	15
17	Stoke	10	4	3	3	+1	15
18	Swansea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
19	Sheffield Weds	10	3	4	3	-3	13
20	Reading	10	3	2	5	+1	11
21	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	+0	11
22	Hull	10	2	3	5	-4	9
23	Bolton	10	2	2	6	-8	8
24	Ipswich	10	0	6	4	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	10	5	4	1	+9	19
2	Middlesbrough	10	4	5	1	+5	17
3	Sheffield United	10	5	1	4	+2	16
4	Nott'm Forest	10	3	6	1	+6	15
5	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+2	15
6	West Brom	10	4	3	3	+1	15
7	Derby	10	4	2	4	+2	14
8	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+0	14
9	Stoke	10	2	6	2	-1	12
10	Swansea	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Birmingham	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Blackburn	10	3	3	4	-7	12
13	QPR	10	3	3	4	-7	12
14	Hull	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	Bolton	10	2	4	4	-5	10
16	Sheffield Weds	10	3	1	6	-8	10
17	Aston Villa	9	2	3	4	-1	9
18	Reading	10	1	4	5	-7	7
19	Preston	10	1	3	6	-11	6
20	Ipswich	10	1	2	7	-12	5
21	Brentford	9	0	4	5	-6	4
22	Wigan	10	1	1	8	-11	4
23	Rotherham	10	0	3	7	-14	3
24	Millwall	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.