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Premier League

Referee: Stuart Attwell

Man City

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Bournemouth

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

3,2

1,7

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 66%

85%

46%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

62%

77%

Both score Ø 46%

38%

54%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

3,1

1,7

Conceded

0,4

1,4

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

73% Possession 27%

16 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Bournemouth 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	11	2	0	+35	35
2	Liverpool	13	10	3	0	+21	33
3	Tottenham	13	10	0	3	+12	30
4	Chelsea	13	8	4	1	+17	28
5	Arsenal	13	8	3	2	+12	27
6	Everton	13	6	4	3	+5	22
7	Man United	13	6	3	4	-1	21
8	Bournemouth	13	6	2	5	+4	20
9	Watford	13	6	2	5	+0	20
10	Leicester	13	5	3	5	+1	18
11	Wolves	14	4	4	6	-4	16
12	Brighton	13	4	3	6	-5	15
13	Newcastle	13	3	3	7	-5	12
14	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-8	12
15	Cardiff	14	3	2	9	-14	11
16	Huddersfield	13	2	4	7	-14	10
17	Crystal Palace	13	2	3	8	-9	9
18	Burnley	13	2	3	8	-14	9
19	Southampton	13	1	5	7	-14	8
20	Fulham	13	2	2	9	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+23	21
2	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+13	16
3	Everton	7	5	1	1	+7	16
4	Chelsea	7	4	3	0	+8	15
5	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
6	Watford	7	4	0	3	-1	12
7	Bournemouth	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+2	11
9	Man United	6	3	2	1	+0	11
10	Cardiff	8	3	1	4	-4	10
11	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	+3	9
12	Leicester	6	2	2	2	+2	8
13	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Fulham	6	2	1	3	-6	7
16	Newcastle	7	2	0	5	-4	6
17	Huddersfield	7	1	2	4	-6	5
18	Southampton	6	0	4	2	-4	4
19	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Crystal Palace	6	0	2	4	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	8	7	0	1	+9	21
2	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	17
3	Man City	6	4	2	0	+12	14
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+9	13
5	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Man United	7	3	1	3	-1	10
7	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
8	Bournemouth	6	3	0	3	+1	9
9	Watford	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Newcastle	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Everton	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	West Ham	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Huddersfield	6	1	2	3	-8	5
16	Burnley	7	1	2	4	-9	5
17	Brighton	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-10	4
19	Cardiff	6	0	1	5	-10	1
20	Fulham	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.