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Championship

Referee: John Brooks

Derby

U S S U S

0–3

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

This season — Championship · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 42%

53%

31%

Points per game

1,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

47%

50%

Both score Ø 71%

67%

75%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

11 Shots 21

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 3. · Aston Villa 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	17	9	3	5	+8	30
2	Norwich	16	9	3	4	+7	30
3	Derby	15	8	4	3	+11	28
4	Middlesbrough	16	7	7	2	+9	28
5	Leeds	15	7	6	2	+12	27
6	Nott'm Forest	16	6	8	2	+7	26
7	West Brom	16	7	4	5	+9	25
8	Blackburn	16	6	7	3	-1	25
9	Swansea	16	6	5	5	+5	23
10	Birmingham	16	5	8	3	+3	23
11	QPR	16	7	2	7	-5	23
12	Bristol City	16	6	4	6	+2	22
13	Brentford	16	5	6	5	+5	21
14	Aston Villa	16	5	6	5	+1	21
15	Stoke	16	5	6	5	-1	21
16	Wigan	16	6	2	8	-5	20
17	Sheffield Weds	17	5	5	7	-9	20
18	Rotherham	16	4	5	7	-9	17
19	Millwall	16	4	4	8	-6	16
20	Bolton	16	4	4	8	-11	16
21	Preston	16	3	6	7	-5	15
22	Reading	16	4	3	9	-5	15
23	Hull	16	4	3	9	-8	15
24	Ipswich	16	1	7	8	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	9	5	3	1	+7	18
2	Brentford	8	5	2	1	+10	17
3	Derby	7	5	2	0	+9	17
4	Wigan	8	5	2	1	+4	17
5	West Brom	8	5	1	2	+10	16
6	Leeds	8	4	3	1	+8	15
7	Aston Villa	8	4	3	1	+5	15
8	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	+5	15
9	Nott'm Forest	8	4	3	1	+3	15
10	Rotherham	8	4	3	1	+3	15
11	Norwich	8	5	0	3	+1	15
12	Swansea	8	4	2	2	+6	14
13	Birmingham	8	3	5	0	+5	14
14	Millwall	8	4	2	2	+4	14
15	QPR	8	4	1	3	+2	13
16	Blackburn	8	3	4	1	+1	13
17	Preston	8	3	3	2	+4	12
18	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	11
19	Stoke	8	3	2	3	+0	11
20	Sheffield Weds	8	2	4	2	-3	10
21	Reading	8	3	0	5	+1	9
22	Hull	8	2	2	4	-2	8
23	Bolton	8	2	1	5	-7	7
24	Ipswich	8	0	6	2	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	8	4	3	1	+6	15
2	Middlesbrough	8	3	4	1	+4	13
3	Leeds	7	3	3	1	+4	12
4	Sheffield United	8	4	0	4	+1	12
5	Blackburn	8	3	3	2	-2	12
6	Nott'm Forest	8	2	5	1	+4	11
7	Derby	8	3	2	3	+2	11
8	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	11
9	Stoke	8	2	4	2	-1	10
10	Sheffield Weds	9	3	1	5	-6	10
11	QPR	8	3	1	4	-7	10
12	West Brom	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Birmingham	8	2	3	3	-2	9
15	Bolton	8	2	3	3	-4	9
16	Hull	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Aston Villa	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	Reading	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Brentford	8	0	4	4	-5	4
20	Ipswich	8	1	1	6	-10	4
21	Wigan	8	1	0	7	-9	3
22	Preston	8	0	3	5	-9	3
23	Millwall	8	0	2	6	-10	2
24	Rotherham	8	0	2	6	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.