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Championship

Referee: England Darren

QPR

T S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

This season — Championship · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 36%

43%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 58%

29%

86%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%

16 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 8

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 9

0 Offside 4

23 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match QPR 13. · Aston Villa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	14	7	5	2	+9	26
2	Sheffield United	14	8	2	4	+7	26
3	West Brom	14	7	3	4	+10	24
4	Derby	13	7	3	3	+9	24
5	Norwich	14	7	3	4	+2	24
6	Leeds	13	6	5	2	+11	23
7	Nott'm Forest	14	5	7	2	+6	22
8	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+4	22
9	Blackburn	14	5	6	3	-2	21
10	Swansea	14	5	5	4	+4	20
11	Birmingham	14	4	8	2	+3	20
12	Wigan	14	6	2	6	-2	20
13	QPR	14	6	2	6	-5	20
14	Sheffield Weds	14	5	4	5	-3	19
15	Brentford	14	4	6	4	+4	18
16	Aston Villa	14	4	6	4	+0	18
17	Stoke	14	4	5	5	-2	17
18	Bolton	14	4	4	6	-8	16
19	Preston	14	3	4	7	-5	13
20	Millwall	14	3	4	7	-7	13
21	Rotherham	14	3	4	7	-10	13
22	Reading	14	3	3	8	-4	12
23	Hull	14	2	3	9	-10	9
24	Ipswich	14	1	6	7	-11	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wigan	7	5	2	0	+5	17
2	West Brom	7	5	0	2	+10	15
3	Brentford	7	4	2	1	+8	14
4	Leeds	7	4	2	1	+8	14
5	Derby	6	4	2	0	+7	14
6	Sheffield United	7	4	2	1	+5	14
7	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+5	14
8	Aston Villa	7	3	3	1	+3	12
9	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+2	12
10	Rotherham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
11	Norwich	7	4	0	3	+0	12
12	Preston	7	3	2	2	+4	11
13	Swansea	7	3	2	2	+4	11
14	Birmingham	7	2	5	0	+3	11
15	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+2	11
16	Millwall	7	3	2	2	+1	11
17	Sheffield Weds	7	2	4	1	+1	10
18	QPR	7	3	1	3	+1	10
19	Blackburn	7	2	4	1	+0	10
20	Stoke	7	3	1	3	+0	10
21	Bolton	7	2	1	4	-6	7
22	Reading	7	2	0	5	+0	6
23	Hull	7	1	2	4	-3	5
24	Ipswich	7	0	5	2	-4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	7	3	3	1	+4	12
2	Sheffield United	7	4	0	3	+2	12
3	Norwich	7	3	3	1	+2	12
4	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+2	11
5	Blackburn	7	3	2	2	-2	11
6	Nott'm Forest	7	2	4	1	+4	10
7	Derby	7	3	1	3	+2	10
8	QPR	7	3	1	3	-6	10
9	Leeds	6	2	3	1	+3	9
10	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+0	9
11	Birmingham	7	2	3	2	+0	9
12	Swansea	7	2	3	2	+0	9
13	Bolton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
14	Sheffield Weds	7	3	0	4	-4	9
15	Stoke	7	1	4	2	-2	7
16	Aston Villa	7	1	3	3	-3	6
17	Reading	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Brentford	7	0	4	3	-4	4
19	Ipswich	7	1	1	5	-7	4
20	Hull	7	1	1	5	-7	4
21	Wigan	7	1	0	6	-7	3
22	Millwall	7	0	2	5	-8	2
23	Preston	7	0	2	5	-9	2
24	Rotherham	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.