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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Aston Villa

T S S S U

0–0

Full-time

Millwall

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

This season — Championship · 18/20 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

40%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 8

8 Blocked shots 4

8 Goalkeeper saves 1

11 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 6. · Millwall 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	20	15	2	3	+24	47
2	Cardiff	20	13	4	3	+16	43
3	Bristol City	21	11	7	3	+12	40
4	Sheffield United	21	12	1	8	+8	37
5	Derby	19	10	4	5	+9	34
6	Aston Villa	18	9	5	4	+10	32
7	Ipswich	20	10	2	8	+5	32
8	Leeds	20	9	3	8	+5	30
9	Preston	20	7	8	5	+2	29
10	Middlesbrough	19	8	4	7	+5	28
11	Brentford	20	6	9	5	+4	27
12	Sheffield Weds	20	6	9	5	+2	27
13	Nott'm Forest	20	9	0	11	-5	27
14	Reading	20	7	5	8	+2	26
15	Fulham	18	6	7	5	+0	25
16	Norwich	20	6	6	8	-8	24
17	Millwall	20	5	7	8	+1	22
18	QPR	20	5	7	8	-7	22
19	Barnsley	20	5	5	10	-7	20
20	Hull	20	4	7	9	-3	19
21	Bolton	20	3	7	10	-18	16
22	Birmingham	20	4	4	12	-19	16
23	Sunderland	20	2	8	10	-12	14
24	Burton Albion	20	3	5	12	-26	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	10	8	1	1	+14	25
2	Cardiff	10	7	3	0	+14	24
3	Sheffield United	11	7	1	3	+8	22
4	Ipswich	10	6	1	3	+8	19
5	Derby	10	6	1	3	+8	19
6	Bristol City	10	5	3	2	+5	18
7	QPR	10	5	3	2	+4	18
8	Nott'm Forest	10	6	0	4	+3	18
9	Millwall	10	5	2	3	+6	17
10	Aston Villa	8	5	2	1	+6	17
11	Sheffield Weds	10	4	5	1	+5	17
12	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+2	17
13	Preston	10	4	4	2	+3	16
14	Leeds	10	4	3	3	+6	15
15	Brentford	10	3	6	1	+4	15
16	Birmingham	10	4	2	4	-3	14
17	Reading	10	3	3	4	+0	12
18	Hull	10	3	2	5	+6	11
19	Fulham	9	2	5	2	-1	11
20	Barnsley	10	3	2	5	-2	11
21	Norwich	10	2	5	3	-2	11
22	Bolton	10	3	2	5	-5	11
23	Burton Albion	10	2	1	7	-14	7
24	Sunderland	10	0	4	6	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	10	7	1	2	+10	22
2	Bristol City	11	6	4	1	+7	22
3	Cardiff	10	6	1	3	+2	19
4	Aston Villa	10	4	3	3	+4	15
5	Derby	9	4	3	2	+1	15
6	Sheffield United	10	5	0	5	+0	15
7	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-1	15
8	Reading	10	4	2	4	+2	14
9	Fulham	9	4	2	3	+1	14
10	Preston	10	3	4	3	-1	13
11	Ipswich	10	4	1	5	-3	13
12	Norwich	10	4	1	5	-6	13
13	Brentford	10	3	3	4	+0	12
14	Middlesbrough	9	3	2	4	+3	11
15	Sheffield Weds	10	2	4	4	-3	10
16	Sunderland	10	2	4	4	-4	10
17	Barnsley	10	2	3	5	-5	9
18	Nott'm Forest	10	3	0	7	-8	9
19	Hull	10	1	5	4	-9	8
20	Burton Albion	10	1	4	5	-12	7
21	Millwall	10	0	5	5	-5	5
22	Bolton	10	0	5	5	-13	5
23	QPR	10	0	4	6	-11	4
24	Birmingham	10	0	2	8	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.