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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Stoke

U U T S T

1–1

Full-time

Brentford

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

6,0

Scored

1,0

5,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

9 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 21. · Brentford 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+3	4
2	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Hull	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Hull	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-3	0
14	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.