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Championship

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Aston Villa

U T U U U

1–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,0

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

13%

63%

Points per game

1,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

38%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

9 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 19. · Newcastle 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	9	6	2	1	+6	20
2	Huddersfield	9	6	1	2	+4	19
3	Brighton	9	5	2	2	+6	17
4	Reading	9	5	2	2	+0	17
5	Birmingham	9	4	4	1	+4	16
6	Newcastle	8	5	0	3	+10	15
7	Barnsley	9	5	0	4	+6	15
8	Wolves	9	4	3	2	+3	15
9	Brentford	9	4	2	3	+6	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+5	14
11	Sheffield Weds	9	4	2	3	-1	14
12	Leeds	9	4	1	4	-1	13
13	Fulham	9	3	4	2	-2	13
14	Ipswich	9	3	3	3	+0	12
15	Nott'm Forest	9	3	2	4	-2	11
16	QPR	9	3	2	4	-4	11
17	Burton Albion	9	2	3	4	-2	9
18	Preston	9	3	0	6	-4	9
19	Aston Villa	8	1	5	2	+0	8
20	Blackburn	9	2	2	5	-6	8
21	Cardiff	9	2	2	5	-7	8
22	Derby	9	1	3	5	-6	6
23	Rotherham	9	1	3	5	-12	6
24	Wigan	9	1	2	6	-3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	5	4	1	0	+5	13
2	Brighton	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Huddersfield	4	4	0	0	+4	12
4	Sheffield Weds	5	4	0	1	+2	12
5	Reading	5	3	2	0	+3	11
6	Brentford	4	3	1	0	+8	10
7	Barnsley	4	3	0	1	+6	9
8	Nott'm Forest	4	3	0	1	+3	9
9	Ipswich	4	2	2	0	+3	8
10	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+0	8
11	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+2	7
13	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Aston Villa	4	1	3	0	+3	6
15	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+2	6
16	Preston	5	2	0	3	+1	6
17	Burton Albion	4	2	0	2	+1	6
18	Rotherham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
19	Wigan	4	1	2	1	+2	5
20	Fulham	5	1	2	2	-4	5
21	QPR	5	1	2	2	-5	5
22	Blackburn	4	1	1	2	-2	4
23	Cardiff	4	1	0	3	-4	3
24	Derby	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	4	3	0	1	+8	9
2	Birmingham	5	2	3	0	+2	9
3	Fulham	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+3	7
5	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Norwich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	QPR	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Barnsley	5	2	0	3	+0	6
10	Leeds	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Reading	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Brighton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Cardiff	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-2	4
15	Derby	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Ipswich	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Blackburn	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Burton Albion	5	0	3	2	-3	3
19	Preston	4	1	0	3	-5	3
20	Sheffield Weds	4	0	2	2	-3	2
21	Aston Villa	4	0	2	2	-3	2
22	Nott'm Forest	5	0	2	3	-5	2
23	Wigan	5	0	0	5	-5	0
24	Rotherham	4	0	0	4	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.